Prediction: New York Mets VS Baltimore Orioles 2025-07-09
The Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Mets Showdown: A Tale of Two Pitchers and a Lot of Runs
The Setup
The Baltimore Orioles (40-49) host the New York Mets (52-39) in a July 9 clash that’s as lopsided as a hot dog at a salad bar. The Orioles, fresh off a sweep of the Braves, are still the AL’s worst team, while the Mets have hit their offensive stride, averaging 6.4 runs per game in their last five. The key matchup? Brandon Young (7.02 ERA, 1.98 WHIP) vs. Clay Holmes (2.99 ERA, 8-4 record). Spoiler: Young is the human equivalent of a leaky tire.
The Numbers Game
- Brandon Young’s ERA (7.02) is worse than the average MLB pitcher’s WHIP.
- The Mets rank 7th in MLB in slugging (.418) and 9th in home runs (118).
- The Orioles’ .400 team slugging is 28th in MLB, while their 5.13 team ERA is 24th.
- Juan Soto (21 HRs) and Cedric Mullins (13 HRs) are the offensive focal points.
Odds Breakdown
- Moneyline: Mets -150 (implied 60%), Orioles +200 (40%).
- Spread: Mets -1.5 (-150), Orioles +1.5 (+130).
- Total: 9.5 runs (Over +100, Under -110).
Implied Probabilities
- Mets: 60% (via -150).
- Orioles: 40% (via +200).
- Model Projection: 9.6 combined runs (leans Under).
Expected Value (EV) Analysis
1. Moneyline:
- Mets: If their actual win probability is 65%, EV = (0.65 * 0.666) - (0.35 * 1) ≈ +6.6%.
- Orioles: Even at 45% actual chance, EV = (0.45 * 1.16) - (0.55 * 1) ≈ -11.2%.
- Spread:
- Mets -1.5: If they cover 55% of the time, EV = (0.55 * 0.7) - (0.45 * 1) ≈ +2.5%.
- Orioles +1.5: EV = (0.45 * 0.3) - (0.55 * 1) ≈ -38.5%.
- Total:
- Over 9.5: Model projects 9.6 runs, but the line is 9.5. If the Over hits 52% of the time, EV = (0.52 * 1) - (0.48 * 1) ≈ +4%.
- Under 9.5: EV = (0.48 * 0.82) - (0.52 * 1) ≈ -8.2%.
The Verdict
While the model leans Under, the math screams Over 9.5 at +100 as the best value. The Mets’ offense (118 HRs) and Young’s 7.02 ERA make a high
Created: July 8, 2025, 6:16 p.m. GMT