Prediction: New York Mets VS Baltimore Orioles 2025-07-10
The Mets vs. Orioles Showdown: A Tale of Overrated Favorites and Undervalued Hope
July 10, 2025 – Oriole Park at Camden Yards
The Setup:
The New York Mets (-138) roll into Baltimore like they own the place, armed with a 65.6% win rate when favored this season. The Baltimore Orioles (+215) are the baseball version of a “Hail Mary” pass—desperate, but not without hope. Let’s break this down with the precision of a retired math teacher who still hates fractions.
The Numbers Game
Mets’ Implied Probability:
Their -138 line translates to a 57.9% chance to win (per the formula: 138/(138+100)). But here’s the twist: the average favorite win rate in MLB is 59% (100% - 41% underdog rate). Splitting the difference between their implied odds and the favorite rate gives us 58.45% expected win probability.
Orioles’ Implied Probability:
Their +215 line means bookmakers think they have a 31.7% shot (100/(215+100)). However, the Orioles have a 42.9% win rate as underdogs this season. Splitting the difference between their implied odds and the underdog rate gives us 36.35% expected win probability.
Expected Value (EV):
- Mets: (58.45% * 0.7246) - 41.55% ≈ +0.75%
- Orioles: (36.35% * 2.15) - 63.65% ≈ +14.5%
Translation: The Orioles are a 14.5% positive EV play, while the Mets are barely breaking even. The math screams, “Bet on the underdog!” But let’s not ignore the context.
Key Players & Context
Mets’ Strengths:
- David Peterson (4.20 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) faces a Baltimore lineup that’s hit just .215 against southpaws this season.
- Juan Soto (35 HRs, 108 RBI) and Francisco Lindor (21 HRs, .310 BA) are the ultimate “buy-low” stars for a team that’s won 65.6% of games when favored.
Orioles’ Hope:
- Charlie Morton (4.80 ERA, 1.35 WHIP) starts for Baltimore, but his 5.12 ERA in road games this year is a red flag.
- Jackson Holliday is on a two-game HR streak, but the Mets’ 3.57 team ERA is the 10th-best in MLB.
Injuries?
No major injuries reported, but the Orioles’ 4.94 ERA is the 29th-worst in baseball. They’re the definition of “trust the process”—if the process is hoping the other team’s pitcher has a bad day.
The Verdict: Bet the Underdog (Yes, Really)
While the Mets are a 58.45% favorite on paper, the Orioles offer 14.5% positive EV—a golden ticket in sports betting. The Mets’ 65.6% win rate when favored is impressive, but it’s inflated by their schedule (they’ve faced the Rockies twice). Meanwhile, the Orioles’ 42.9% underdog win rate suggests they’re better than their 40-50 record.
Final Play:
Baltimore Orioles +215
Why? Because math hates favorites, and the Orioles are the 2025 version of “David with a slingshot and a spreadsheet.”
Honorable Mention:
Under 9 Runs (-110)
With Morton’s shaky command and Peterson’s ground-ball tendencies, this game could be a pitcher’s duel. The Over has 51.3% implied probability, but the Under’s 48.7% edge (based on combined ERAs) makes it a safer play.
Final Score Prediction:
Mets 3, Orioles 2. But the EV says otherwise. Trust the chaos.
“The odds are just numbers. The game is chaos. Bet accordingly.” — Your friendly neighborhood sports handicapper, who once bet on a 50-1 longshot and won… then lost the winnings on a roulette table.
Created: July 10, 2025, 4:56 a.m. GMT