Prediction: New York Mets VS Chicago Cubs 2025-09-24

Mets vs. Cubs: A Tale of Two Tomorrows (With Fewer Tomorrows to Go)
By Your Humble Sportswriter, Who Still Can’t Believe the Mets Are Real

The New York Mets and Chicago Cubs are set to collide in a September showdown that’s less “World Series preview” and more “two tired boxers trading haymakers in the 15th round.” Let’s break this down with the precision of a MLB umpire and the humor of a concession stand vendor who’s seen it all.

Parsing the Odds: Why the Cubs Are the “Slightly Less Likely to Explode” Choice
The Cubs (-130) are favored, which means bookmakers think they’ve got a 56.5% chance to win (thanks to the magic of American odds: 150 / (150 + 100)). The Mets (+210) are your underdog, implying a 32.3% chance (100 / (210 + 100)). For context, the Cubs’ 65.9% win rate when favored by -130+ this season is like a 70% chance your Wi-Fi will drop during a Zoom call. Not great, but not unthinkable.

The over/under is set at 7.5 runs, with the Cubs’ 70-76-10 over/under record (70 overs) and the Mets’ 73-156-73 split suggesting this game could be a dinger fest. Given both teams’ love for the long ball (Cubs: 209 HRs, Mets: 215), betting the Over feels like predicting a toddler will spill juice at a family dinner: inevitable.

Digesting the News: Injuries, Pitching, and the Eternal Struggle of Relievers
Cubs (88-68):
- Starting Pitcher: Matthew Boyd (3.20 ERA, 13-8 record). Think of Boyd as the “reliable but unexciting” friend who always shows up to parties but never starts a fight. He’s got the ERA to back up his “I’ve seen better” vibe.
- Injuries: The Cubs are missing Kyle Tucker (calf), Miguel Amaya (ankle), and a parade of relievers. It’s like a family reunion where half the guests are on crutches. Still, their lineup—led by Nico Hoerner (.299 BA), Pete Crow-Armstrong (.476 SLG), and Seiya Suzuki (27 HRs)—is sturdy enough to outslug most opponents.

Mets (80-76):
- Starting Pitcher: Jonah Tong (2-2, 5th start). Tong is the “rookie trying to prove himself” archetype, which is both thrilling and terrifying. He’s got potential, but let’s not forget the Mets’ rotation includes Jordan Peterson (6.33 ERA in the second half). If Tong falters, the Mets’ bullpen is a disaster zone: 8 pitchers on the IL, including Frankie Montás and Christian Scott. It’s like a Jenga tower after a hurricane.
- Offense: The Mets’ Juan Soto (42 HRs), Francisco Lindor (28 HRs), and Pete Alonso (122 RBIs) are a nuclear triad. But their defense? Juan Soto’s misplayed fly ball and Jeff McNeil’s double error in their last game cost them five runs. If the Mets’ defense were a car, it’d have a “Salvage Yard Special” sign on it.

The Humor: Because Baseball Needs More Laughs
- The Cubs’ pitching staff: “Boyd is the only reason the Cubs aren’t playing with a ‘Here’s Johnny!’ vibe. He’s the last man standing in a game of musical chairs where the chairs are all broken.”
- The Mets’ offense: “Their bats are so hot, they could melt a snowman in a sauna. Too bad their defense is a snowman in a sauna—melting, confused, and asking, ‘Why is this happening to me?’”
- The IL lists: “Both teams have more players on the injured list than a high school football team after a particularly brutal game of tackle tag.”

Prediction: Why the Cubs Should Win, Unless the Mets Hit 3 Home Runs in the 1st Inning
The Cubs’ stronger pitching (3.82 ERA vs. Mets’ 3.99) and healthier defense give them the edge. Boyd’s experience and the Mets’ shaky bullpen (which used six relievers in their last win) tilt the scales. The Mets’ offense? They’ll need another Alvarez two-run homer in the 8th inning to pull off the upset.

Final Verdict:
Chicago Cubs -1.5 are the play here. The Mets’ offense is a loaded gun, but their defense is the trigger finger wearing a cast. Unless Lindor, Soto, and Alonso go nuclear early, the Cubs’ steadier hand will prevail.

“The Mets can still win, but only if they hit three home runs before the Cubs hit one. And maybe if the Cubs’ catcher starts crying into his glove.”

Over/Under: Over 7.5 – With 414 combined home runs this season, these teams hitting 8 runs feels like betting the next president will be a former reality TV star. You know it’s coming.

Go Cubs, go. And Mets fans? Stock up on hope and maybe a defibrillator. 🎬⚾

Created: Sept. 25, 2025, 12:22 a.m. GMT

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