Prediction: New York Mets VS Philadelphia Phillies 2025-06-22
The Mets vs. Phillies: A Tale of Power, Pitches, and Philly’s Philly-ness
The New York Mets, fresh off a 7-homer explosion in their series opener, are now tasked with keeping their NL East hopes alive against the Philadelphia Phillies. But let’s not get too carried away—this isn’t a Game of Thrones finale. It’s just a baseball game where the Mets’ starting pitcher, Griffin Canning, has a June ERA that makes a 5.74 look like a typo (it’s not). Meanwhile, the Phillies’ Jesús Luzardo is here to remind everyone that Philadelphia’s offense isn’t just about dodging Mets’ dingers.
Key Stats & Context
- Mets’ Power Surge: The Mets hit 7 homers in Game 1, including 2 each from Soto and Nimmo. They’ve now won 28 straight games when Lindor homers (1 shy of MLB record).
- Canning’s June Jinx: The Mets’ starter has a 5.74 ERA in June, which is about as reliable as a toaster in a thunderstorm.
- Phillies’ Bullpen: Philly’s relievers shut down the Mets in Game 1, combining for 3 scoreless innings. Their bullpen has a 3.12 ERA this season—trust the beard.
- Luzardo’s Edge: The Phillies’ starter has a 3.20 ERA this season and has held opponents to a .220 batting average. He’s also got a 5-2 record against the Mets in his career.
Odds Breakdown
| Market | Mets (Underdog) | Phillies (Favorite) |
|--------------|------------------|---------------------|
| Moneyline | +200 (1/2.0) | -185 (1/1.85) |
| Spread | -1.5 (2.6) | +1.5 (1.52) |
| Total | Over 9.5 (2.0) | Under 9.5 (1.82) |
Implied Probabilities:
- Mets: 50% (Moneyline)
- Phillies: 54.3% (Moneyline)
Underdog Win Rate Adjustment:
Baseball’s underdog win rate is 41%, so the Mets’ actual chance is likely closer to 41% (vs. 50% implied). The Phillies’ edge widens here.
Expected Value (EV) Calculation
1. Moneyline EV for Phillies:
- Implied probability: 54.3%
- Adjusted probability (using historical underdog rates): 59% (since Mets are 41%)
- EV = (59% * 1.85) - (41% * 1) = +0.5475
- Moneyline EV for Mets:
- EV = (41% * 2.0) - (59% * 1) = +0.23
Verdict: The Phillies offer a higher EV (+0.55), making them the smarter play despite their “overrated” status.
Why the Phillies Win
- Canning’s June Struggles: A 5.74 ERA is a red flag in a high-stakes NL East matchup.
- Luzardo’s Dominance: His career stats against the Mets and his 3.20 ERA make him the better starter.
- Phillies’ Bullpen: Philly’s relievers have been airtight, and the Mets’ offense is riding a hot streak that might fizzle.
Why the Mets Could Win
- Power Overload: The Mets’ 7-homer game proves they can punch through any pitching.
- Lindor’s Magic: His 28-game win streak when he homers is a magical force of nature.
Final Pick: Phillies -1.5 (+152)
While the Mets’ offense is electric, Canning’s June woes and Luzardo’s consistency tilt the EV in Philly’s favor. Take the Phillies -1.5 at +152 (best line on FanDuel).
Bonus Prop Bet: Over 9.5 Runs (-110). With both teams’ bats heating up, this game could be a fireworks show.
Final Score Prediction: Phillies 6, Mets 4.
Note: If you bet on the Mets, you’re either a masochist or a fan of dramatic comebacks. Either way, good luck. 🎲⚾
Created: June 22, 2025, 2:40 p.m. GMT