Prediction: New York Mets VS Pittsburgh Pirates 2025-06-28
The Mets vs. Pirates: A Tale of Two Teams (and a Few Home Runs)
By The Handicapper with a Pencil Behind Their Ear
The New York Mets (48-34) and Pittsburgh Pirates (32-50) clash at PNC Park on Friday, where the Mets are expected to dominate like a Netflix series on a binge. Let’s break this down with the precision of a scout who’s seen every swing and miss.
Key Stats & Context
- Mets Offense: Juan Soto (19 HRs, 14 doubles) and Pete Alonso (18 HRs, 64 RBI) form a power duo that’s hit 8 HRs and 15 RBI against the Pirates this season. The Mets are 36-10 in games with ≥8 hits—which, let’s be honest, they should qualify for every night.
- Pirates Defense: Mitch Keller (RHP) starts for Pittsburgh, but their 3.87 ERA hides a weak offense (last in MLB with 55 HRs). Bryan Reynolds (39 RBI) is the lone bright spot, but even he’s probably counting on a comeback special.
- Mets Pitching: David Peterson (LHP) faces a Pirates team that slugs .337—the kind of number that makes you question if they’ve ever seen a fastball.
Odds & Underdog Shenanigans
The Mets are -150 favorites (implied 60% win chance), while the Pirates are +230 underdogs (implied 41.3% win chance). Adjusting for MLB’s 41% underdog win rate, the Pirates’ adjusted probability is ~42.1%. That’s a hair above average, but not enough to tempt us.
Total: The Over/Under is 9 runs (-110 both sides). The SportsLine model leans Over, and with the Mets’ 107 HRs and the Pirates’ 55, this feels like a fireworks show.
The Math of Madness
- Mets Moneyline EV:
- Implied probability: 60%
- Adjusted for their 67.9% win rate as favorites: ~68%
- EV = (0.68 * 0.69) - (0.32 * 1) = +4.1%
- Pirates Moneyline EV:
- Implied: 41.3% vs. 41% underdog rate → ~41.1%
- EV = (0.411 * 2.3) - (0.589 * 1) = -3.6%
- Over 9 Runs:
- Implied 50% vs. model’s Over lean → +EV if you trust the model.
The Verdict
Best Bet: New York Mets Moneyline (-150)
Why? The Mets’ 67.9% win rate as favorites is a statistical outlier, and their offense is a wrecking crew against the Pirates’ anemic lineup. Even with a slight price edge, the Mets’ +4.1% EV here is too tempting.
Honorable Mention: Over 9 Runs
The model’s Over lean makes sense. The Mets’ 107 HRs and the Pirates’ 3.87 ERA suggest a high-scoring affair. If you’re feeling spicy, pair the Over with the Mets’ moneyline for a double-dip.
Final Score Prediction
Mets 6, Pirates 3
Because even in a pitcher-friendly park, the Mets’ bats are louder than the Pirates’ excuses.
Stay sharp, bet smarter, and may your lineups always outslug the competition. 🎩⚾
Created: June 28, 2025, 1:18 a.m. GMT