Prediction: New York Red Bulls VS Toronto FC 2025-06-25
Toronto FC vs. New York Red Bulls: A Tale of Two Teams (and a Lot of Suffering)
By The Handicapper Who Still Believes in Miracles
The Setup:
Toronto FC, the kings of "home field advantage" (read: a cursed BMO Field), host the New York Red Bulls in a match that’s equal parts "will this team ever win?" and "is this stadium haunted?" Toronto is on a 12-game winless streak against NYC, missing their captain Jonathan Osorio (out "a couple weeks at least") and five other key players. Meanwhile, the Red Bulls are bringing their A-game: a red-hot Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting, a 28th-worst away record in MLS, and the confidence of a team six points ahead in the standings.
The Numbers:
- Toronto’s Home Record: 0-5-0 in their last five at BMO Field. They’ve scored 0.4 goals per game here this season.
- NYC’s Away Record: 4-10-4, tied with St. Louis for the worst in MLS. They’ve scored just 1.1 goals per away game.
- Injuries: Toronto is missing Osorio, Cyle Larin (hamstring), and others. The Red Bulls are healthier but still lack consistency.
- Odds (via FanDuel):
- New York Red Bulls: -114 (implied probability: 52.4%)
- Toronto FC: +350 (28.6%)
- Draw: +333 (30.3%)
The Underdog Win Rate Angle:
Soccer’s underdog win rate is 41%, vs. Toronto’s implied 28.6% here. That’s a 12.4% gap—enough to make you question the bookmakers’ math. If we split the difference (28.6% + 12.4% = 41%), Toronto’s adjusted EV becomes +84.5%. That’s not just value—it’s a mathematical middle finger to the status quo.
The Spread & Total:
- NYC -0.25 (-114): Implied 54.9% win probability. But with NYC’s away woes, this line smells like a "trap game" for Toronto.
- Total 2.5 Goals: Over at +100. With Choupo-Moting (10 goals this season) and Toronto’s leaky defense (1.8 goals conceded at home), this feels like a 50/50.
The Sarcasm:
Toronto’s home record is so bad, they’ve turned BMO Field into a museum of despair. The Red Bulls, meanwhile, are like the "away team" version of a college student who only studies for exams they don’t care about. This is the MLS version of "two broken clocks meeting at midnight."
The Best Bet:
Toronto FC (+350)
- Why? The underdog win rate (41%) suggests the market is undervaluing Toronto’s potential. With NYC’s shaky away form and Toronto’s "nothing to lose" mindset, this isn’t just a pick—it’s a rebellion.
- EV Calculation: (0.41 * 3.5) - (0.59 * 1) = +0.845. That’s not just value—it’s a mathematical middle finger to the status quo.
Honorable Mention:
Draw (+333)
- The Red Bulls are too inconsistent to win decisively, and Toronto’s home form is so bad they’ll likely avoid a loss. The draw’s implied 30.3% vs. a realistic 35%+ chance makes this a sneaky play.
Final Verdict:
Toronto’s best bet isn’t to win—they’re too broken for that. Their best bet is to not lose, which, in MLS, is often the same thing. Bet Toronto FC to cover the -0.25 spread (if they can muster a draw) or take the outright +350 upset. Either way, it’s a pick that defies logic—and that’s exactly what Toronto needs.
“The first half of the season is over… and it’s been a dumpster fire.” – Robin Fraser, probably.
Created: June 25, 2025, 6:47 p.m. GMT