Prediction: New York Yankees VS Cincinnati Reds 2025-06-24
Yankees vs. Reds: A Tale of Power, Pitches, and a Spot Starter’s Worst Nightmare
By The Sports Oracle (aka Your Uncle Who Still Thinks the ’98 Yankees Were the Best Ever)
The Setup
The New York Yankees (45-32) roll into Cincinnati as the AL East’s golden boys, but their June résumé reads like a bad Netflix rom-com: “Yankees Struggle to Win 3 of 10 Games.” Meanwhile, the Cincinnati Reds (40-38) are the scrappy underdogs, armed with a 51.2% win rate as underdogs this season—10% better than the MLB average. It’s the kind of David vs. Goliath matchup that makes Vegas bookmakers cringe, because the Reds might just pull off the heist.
Key Players & Injuries
- Yankees’ Carlos Rodon (9-5, 3.10 ERA): Aces in the making? Sure. But he’s facing a Reds lineup that’s hitting .270 against lefties this year. Not a death sentence, but not a cakewalk either.
- Aaron Judge (.367, 27 HR, 61 RBI): The Yankees’ MVP candidate is on a tear, but Cincinnati’s park is a HR graveyard (11th-fewest HRs in MLB). Time to break out the fungo bat, Aaron.
- Reds’ Elly De La Cruz (17 HR, 52 RBI): The 22-year-old phenom is a one-man wrecking crew. He’s hit 5 HRs in his last 10 games. If he connects early, the Reds’ chances skyrocket.
- Yankees’ Allan Winans (Spot Starter): The minor league journeyman is making his MLB debut, and his last start against the Reds? Seven runs in 2⅔ innings. This is the kind of “spot start” that makes you question why the Yankees didn’t just bring in a guy from the minors with a better track record.
The Odds & EV Breakdown
- Moneyline: Yankees -160 (implied 61.5% chance), Reds +240 (implied 29.4% chance).
- Underdog Win Rate: 41% in MLB.
- Split the Difference: Take the Reds’ implied 29.4% and average it with their 41% underdog rate: (29.4% + 41%) / 2 = 35.2%.
- Expected Value (EV): If the Reds’ actual chance is ~35%, but the line only gives them 29.4%, that’s a +6% edge. For the Yankees, their implied 61.5% vs. their actual 57.5% (42-26 as favorites) = -4% edge.
Why Bet the Reds?
1. Allan Winans is a Walking HR Ticket: His career ERA in the minors? 5.82. His last start against the Reds? Seven runs. If the Reds jump on him early, the Yankees’ offense (15th in MLB in runs per game) might not save him.
2. Reds’ Underdog Magic: They’ve won 22 of 43 games as underdogs this season. That’s not just luck—it’s a culture of “we don’t care what the odds say, we’re gonna fight.”
3. June Jitters for the Yankees: They’re 3-10 in June. Even Aaron Boone is probably checking his phone for updates on the weather.
The Verdict
Best Bet: Cincinnati Reds Moneyline (+240)
- EV: Positive edge (35.2% actual vs. 29.4% implied).
- Risk: High (they’re the underdog), but their 51.2% underdog win rate is a siren song for smart money.
- Fun Fact: If you bet $100 on the Reds and they win, you’ll get $240. That’s enough to buy a small statue of Elly De La Cruz.
Honorable Mention: Reds +1.5 (-110) is a safer play if you’re risk-averse. They’re 12-5 against the spread as underdogs this season.
Final Thought: The Yankees are the favorites, but they’re carrying the weight of a struggling June and a shaky starter. The Reds? They’re the team that’s made a habit of stealing games when no one expects it. This is the kind of matchup where the underdog’s HR slugger (De La Cruz) and the spot starter’s nightmare (Winans) collide. Buckle up—it’s gonna be a wild ride.
“The odds are just numbers. The Reds are the story.” – Your Uncle, 2025 🎩⚾
Created: June 24, 2025, 1 p.m. GMT