Prediction: New York Yankees VS New York Mets 2025-07-05
The New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: A Tale of Two Queens (and a Lot of Ground Balls)
By The Great American Handicapper, Esq.
The Setup:
The 2025 Subway Series kicks off in Citi Field with the Mets (-114) favored over the Yankees (+150). Both teams are mired in a second-place tie in their respective divisions, but let’s be honest—this is less about baseball and more about settling a 158-year-old feud over who invented the hot dog. The total is set at 9 runs, and the Mets’ Paul Blackburn (4.20 ERA, 7.3 K/9) faces Marcus Stroman (4.50 ERA, 6.8 K/9), who’s returning from a rehab stint.
Key Stats & Trends:
- Yankees Under Machine: The Bombers have cashed the Under in 47 of their last 81 games (58%), a trend that defies logic in an era of launch-angle-optimized missiles.
- Mets Ground Ball Gospel: The Mets lead MLB in ground ball rate (52.3%), which means their pitchers are essentially playing shortstop. Grounders = fewer strikeouts, which plays into the Under.
- Power Rankings: Yankees are second in HRs (130) and slugging (.447); Mets are seventh in HRs (111) and slugging (.414). But let’s not confuse “power” with “plate discipline.”
- Starting Pitcher Shenanigans: Blackburn is a ground ball machine (55% GB%), while Stroman’s return from injury is a “wait and see” situation. Neither is a Cy Young contender, but both are good for low-scoring dawgs.
Injuries & Lineup Notes:
- Yankees: Stroman is the only notable starter, but his rehab stint raises questions about his stamina. The lineup is healthy, though Paul Goldschmidt (Cardinals, not Yankees—thanks for that, user) isn’t here to help.
- Mets: Juan Soto and Pete Alonso are healthy, but the bullpen is a patchwork of “meh” arms. If they’re forced into a bullpen game early, the Yankees’ first-inning moneyline (+200) becomes tempting.
Odds Breakdown & Expected Value:
- Moneyline: Mets at -114 (53.27% implied) vs. Yankees at +150 (40% implied). The Mets have gone 39-22 as favorites this season (63.9% win rate), which screams “overpriced” to anyone who’s ever bought a lottery ticket.
- Total: Over 9 (-105) vs. Under 9 (-110). The Yankees’ 58% Under rate vs. the Mets’ ground ball fetish gives the Under a 58% chance, vs. implied 51.8%. That’s a 6.2% edge.
The Great American Handicapper’s Verdict:
Best Bet: Under 9 Runs (-110)
Why? The Yankees’ Under trend (58%) and the Mets’ ground ball dominance (52.3% GB%) scream “low-scoring dreck.” Even with two subpar starters, the math checks out. The EV is 6.2%—better than most Vegas slots.
Same-Game Parlay (SGP) Bonus:
- Under 9 Runs (-110) + Yankees First-Inning Moneyline (+200) = 12.5% EV. It’s a stretch, but if Stroman’s rusty and the Mets’ bullpen is a joke, this parlay could cash like a winning Powerball ticket.
Final Thought:
The Mets are -114 favorites, but their 63.9% win rate as favorites is unsustainable. Bet the Under 9 Runs and cash out before the fireworks start. After all, no one wants to watch a 1-0 game on the Fourth of July.
Responsible Gaming Reminder: If you’re betting on the Yankees, you’re probably already a masochist. Don’t double down. 🎇⚾
Created: July 4, 2025, 6:23 p.m. GMT