Prediction: Niko Price VS Jacobe Smith 2025-06-28
UFC 317: The Early Prelims’ Most Absurd Underdog Storyline
Where Niko Price Defies Logic and Jacobe Smith Sleeps Through the Bell
The Fight: Niko Price (19-8-0) vs. Jacobe Smith (18-5-0)
Division: Middleweight
Odds (Various Bookmakers):
- Jacobe Smith: -960 to -1050 (Implied Probability: ~96%)
- Niko Price: +11.0 to +13.0 (Implied Probability: ~7.7%)
The Setup:
Let’s cut to the chase: This fight is less of a contest and more of a “Can You Spot the Human Sacrifice?” moment. Smith, a power-punching middleweight with a 18-5 record, is being priced like a sure thing to win a lottery. Price, a bantamweight-turned-middleweight with a 19-8 ledger, is being given a 7.7% chance to win—despite being a 12-1 underdog. If this were a coin flip, Price would need to land 4 straight heads just to match the bookmakers’ skepticism.
The Stats That Make You Question Reality:
- Smith’s Power: 45% of his wins have come via knockout, including a 47-second finish over Dricus Du Plessis in 2023.
- Price’s… Everything Else: 33% of his wins are by submission, including a D’Arce choke on Drew Dober in 2022. His wrestling is elite, but his chin? Not so much.
- Injuries/Updates: None reported. Smith is healthy. Price is healthy. The only injury here is your faith in the Vegas odds.
The Underdog Win Rate vs. the Math:
MMA’s underdog win rate is 35%, but Price’s implied odds (7.7%) are way below that. Splitting the difference between the two gives Price a 21.3% chance to win (7.7% + 35% = 42.6% / 2).
Expected Value (EV) Calculation:
- Price’s EV:
(21.3% chance to win * $12 profit) - (78.7% chance to lose * $1) = +$1.77
- Smith’s EV:
(96% chance to win * $0.96 profit) - (4% chance to lose * $1) = -$0.02
The Verdict:
Bet on Niko Price (+12.0) for Maximum Chaos
Yes, this is a 12-1 shot. Yes, Smith is a brick wall with fists. But the EV here is insanely positive for Price. The math says Smith is overvalued, and Price’s wrestling could give him a path to a submission or decision. If you’re a fan of “unlikely heroes,” this is your spot.
The Main Event Tease (Because You’re Not Here for the Prelims):
- Charles Oliveira vs. Ilya Topuria: Oliveira (34-8) is the “Charm” of the lightweight division, while Topuria (19-1) is the “Chaos.” Oliveira’s 30% takedown defense vs. Topuria’s 100% takedown accuracy? That’s a recipe for disaster.
- Alexander Volkanovski vs. Kai Kara-France: Volkanovski (28-1) is a 14-1 favorite. Kara-France’s 52% striking accuracy vs. Volky’s 41% defense? Not enough to overcome the 14-1 line.
Final Thought:
If you’re betting on Smith, you’re just buying a ticket to Vegas. But if you’re betting on Price? You’re buying a story. And in MMA, stories sometimes win fights.
Best Bet: Niko Price (+12.0)
Because the only thing more unpredictable than MMA is the Vegas odds. 🥊🔥
Created: June 28, 2025, 11:05 p.m. GMT