Prediction: North Melbourne Kangaroos VS Carlton Blues 2025-06-20

AFL Showdown: North Melbourne Kangaroos vs. Carlton Blues
Round 15, 2025 | MCG | 1:20 PM AEST

The Setup:
Carlton, the 10th-placed Blues, are reeling from a brutal injury report: Sam Walsh (knee), Charlie Curnow (knee), Hudson O’Keefe (knee), and Harry McKay (knee surgery) are all sidelined. That’s like losing your entire kitchen staff and expecting to serve a five-star meal. Meanwhile, North Melbourne (16th) nearly pulled off a shocker against Fremantle last week, proving they’re not just a laughingstock.

The Odds (Bookmaker Consensus):
- Carlton Blues: -250 (1.28)
- North Melbourne Kangaroos: +350 (3.7)
- Spread: Carlton -25.5, North +25.5
- Total: 164.5 (Even money)

Key Injuries/Updates:
Carlton’s injury crisis is catastrophic. Curnow and McKay are their top two goalkickers; O’Keefe is a midfield engine. Without them, the Blues’ attack becomes a leaky dam. North, meanwhile, has a functional squad, with key players like Matthew Wright and Lachie Neale healthy.

Historical Context & Win Rates:
- AFL underdog win rates are roughly 32% (closer to NBA than NFL).
- North’s implied probability from the odds: 23.8% (1 / 3.7).
- Carlton’s implied probability: 77.6% (1 / 1.28).

Expected Value (EV) Analysis:
1. North Melbourne (Underdog):
- Historical underdog win rate: 32%
- Implied probability: 23.8%
- EV Edge: 32% - 23.8% = +8.2%
- Split the difference: 32% - 23.8% = 8.2% → Bet North.

2. Carlton (Favorite):
- Historical favorite win rate: ~68% (100% - 32%).
- Implied probability: 77.6%
- EV Edge: 68% - 77.6% = -9.6%
- Split the difference: 68% - 77.6% = -9.6% → Avoid.

The Verdict:
North Melbourne is a +350 underdog with a 32% historical win rate vs. a 23.8% implied probability. The EV is +8.2%, making them the clear value play. Carlton’s injury-riddled squad is overvalued by bookmakers, while North’s near-upset vs. Fremantle last week suggests they’re a sleeping giant.

Best Bet: North Melbourne Kangaroos (+25.5) at +350
Why? The Kangaroos are undervalued by the market, and Carlton’s injuries create a perfect storm. Even if North loses, the +25.5 spread gives them a fighting chance to cover.

Final Thought:
This isn’t just a game—it’s a feel-good story for The Underdogs. But in betting terms, it’s a classic “overvalued favorite vs. undervalued underdog” scenario. Grab the value on North.

“The Underdogs aren’t just kids—they’re a reminder that even the most battered teams can rise. But in this case, the real underdog is North Melbourne. Go Kangaroos.” 🐆

Created: June 20, 2025, 7 p.m. GMT