Prediction: Oakland Athletics VS Detroit Tigers 2025-06-26
Detroit Tigers vs. Oakland Athletics: A Tale of Two Teams (and a Run Differential)
June 26, 2025 | Detroit Tigers (50-...) vs. Oakland Athletics (…-50?) | Jack Flaherty vs. Jacob Lopez
The Setup:
The Detroit Tigers, now MLB’s first 50-win team, have turned the American League into a personal playground. They’re +89 in run differential (second-best in the league) and lead the AL Central by 9.5 games. The Oakland Athletics, meanwhile, are the AL’s version of a “mystery meat” hot dog—unappetizing, underperforming, and clinging to hope like a sunburned fan at a July game.
Key Stats & Context:
- Detroit’s Offense: Kerry Carpenter (14 HRs) and Riley Greene (4-for-5 in the last game) are the tip of the spear. The Tigers average 5.8 runs/game and have the 3rd-best team ERA (3.82).
- Oakland’s Defense: The A’s allow 5.2 runs/game and rank 29th in team ERA (5.41). Jacob Lopez, their starter, has a 5.12 ERA this season and a 1.42 WHIP.
- Jack Flaherty: The Tigers’ ace has a 2.98 ERA and 10.2 K/9 this season. He’s 6-1 with a 2.75 ERA in his last 10 starts.
- Injuries: None reported for either team. The Tigers are basically the NBA’s “healthy” team, while the A’s are just… there.
Odds Breakdown (FanDuel):
- Moneyline: Tigers -133 (59.3% implied), Athletics +234 (29.9% implied).
- Spread: Tigers -1.5 (-118), Athletics +1.5 (-108).
- Total: Over 8.5 (-113), Under 8.5 (-107).
Underdog Win Rates & EV Calculations:
- MLB underdogs win ~41% of the time. The Athletics’ implied win rate here is 29.9%, which is way below the historical average. That’s a red flag for the moneyline.
- EV for Tigers Moneyline:
- Implied probability: 59.3%.
- Historical favorite win rate: ~59% (since underdogs win 41%).
- EV = (59.3% * 0.75) - (40.7% * 1) = -0.001 (basically a coin flip with a slight edge to the A’s).
- EV for Over 8.5 Runs:
- Implied probability: 51.7% (based on -113 odds).
- Detroit’s +89 run differential and Oakland’s porous defense suggest a 65-70% chance of the Over hitting.
- EV = (67.5% * 0.89) - (32.5% * 1) = +0.21 (a solid positive edge).
The Verdict:
The Tigers are a juggernaut, and the A’s are a cautionary tale. But here’s the twist: the Over 8.5 runs is the smartest bet. Detroit’s offense (5.8 R/G) and Oakland’s defense (5.2 R/G allowed) create a perfect storm for a high-scoring game. Even if Flaherty pitches well, the A’s lineup (which ranks 28th in runs scored) will likely give up a few.
Why Not the Tigers Moneyline?
Sure, they’re 50-... but their implied probability (59.3%) is barely above the historical favorite win rate (59%). The line is essentially a “no-vig” bet, and the A’s 29.9% implied is laughably low given their 41% historical underdog win rate.
Final Pick:
Over 8.5 Runs (-113)
Because when the Tigers are scoring 5.8 runs a game and the A’s are giving up 5.2, the only thing more predictable than the score is the inevitability of a postgame “let’s go Tigers” chant from the Oakland dugout.
Bonus Sarcasm:
If you bet on the A’s, at least you’ll get to say you backed the underdog. Just don’t expect a parade… unless you’re in the business of celebrating 11-4 losses.
Created: June 26, 2025, 12:35 a.m. GMT