Prediction: Oakland Athletics VS Kansas City Royals 2025-06-15
Folks, we've got a real barnburner of a matchup for you today - the Oakland Athletics, with their exciting brand of "we're trying" baseball, are heading into Kansas City to take on the Royals, who are desperately trying to snap a four-game losing streak. Because, you know, four losses in a row is basically a season-ender.
The Royals, led by the fearless Bobby Witt Jr., are favored at -159 (or about 1.66 on the moneyline, for those who speak decimal), while the Athletics, with Jacob Wilson at the helm, are sitting pretty at +159 (or 2.28-2.35, depending on your bookie). The Royals have a 14-14 record when favored, while the Athletics have won 18 games as underdogs this season. That's right, folks - the A's are basically the ultimate Cinderella story, minus the glass slipper and fairy godmother.
Now, let's talk pitching. Noah Cameron is set to start for the Royals, while Jeffrey Springs will take the mound for the Athletics. We're not going to pretend like we have in-depth knowledge of these pitchers, but we'll assume they're both trying their best not to get crushed.
The Royals are struggling to score, ranking third-fewest in runs with a paltry 235 total (3.4 per game). Meanwhile, the Athletics are raking, with a .254 batting average and 86 home runs (ninth in the league). The A's pitching staff, on the other hand, is a different story - they're rocking a combined ERA of 5.62, which ranks 29th in MLB. Because, you know, 29th out of 30 is basically a badge of honor.
So, what's the smart money on? Well, if we look at the historical trends, underdogs win about 41% of the time in baseball, which suggests that the Athletics have a decent chance of pulling off the upset. But let's not get too crazy here - the Royals are still the better team on paper.
For our best bet, we're going to go with the Royals on the moneyline at -159. The expected value calculation looks like this:
Expected Value (EV) = (probability of winning x odds) - (probability of losing x 1)
Assuming the Royals have about a 60% chance of winning (based on their favored status and overall team performance), and using the FanDuel odds:
EV = (0.6 x 1.66) - (0.4 x 1) ≈ 0.996 - 0.4 = 0.596
Now, let's compare this to the Athletics:
EV = (0.4 x 2.28) - (0.6 x 1) ≈ 0.912 - 0.6 = 0.312
The Royals' expected value is higher, making them the better bet.
As for the totals, the Over/Under is sitting at 9.0 runs. Given the Royals' anemic offense and the Athletics' suspect pitching, we're inclined to take the Under. But hey, that's just a hunch.
Our best bet: Kansas City Royals on the moneyline at -159.
Side note: If you're feeling adventurous, take a flier on the Athletics +159. After all, as the great philosopher, Ferris Bueller, once said, "Life moves pretty fast. If you don't stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it." Or in this case, you could miss the Athletics pulling off a surprise win.
Created: June 15, 2025, 12:26 p.m. GMT