Prediction: Oakland Athletics VS New York Yankees 2025-06-28
The Yankees vs. Athletics: A Tale of Two Teams (and a Moneyline Bet That Smells Like a Free Win)
The Setup
The New York Yankees (46-34) roll into Yankee Stadium as -248 favorites against the Oakland Athletics (33-50). On paper, this is a mismatch: the Yankees are fifth in MLB in scoring (5.1 R/G) and have a 3.48 ERA, while the A’s are a punchless 29th in runs per game. But here’s the twist: the A’s are 8th in home runs (101) and lead the league in… wait for it… “optimism”? No, that’s not a stat. But given MLB’s 41% underdog win rate, maybe we should take a closer look at this “dog.”
The Numbers Game
- Yankees’ Edge: Aaron Judge (.361 BA) and a 5.1 R/G offense are terrifying. Clarke Schmidt (assuming he’s healthy—no injury updates provided) should keep the A’s in check.
- A’s Wild Card: Jacob Wilson (.345 BA) and their 101 HRs could spell trouble for the Yankees’ pitching staff. JP Sears, their starter, has a 4.12 ERA this season (per Baseball Reference), which isn’t great but not catastrophic.
- The Spread: Yankees -1.5 at +1.8 odds. This line is a “half-run trap”—if you think the A’s can hang around, the +1.5 spread at +2.04 odds is tempting. But the Yankees’ offense is too potent to trust the underdog here.
The Moneyline: A Free Win?
The A’s are +3.0 on the moneyline, implying a 25% chance to win (1 / (3.0 + 1) = 25%). But MLB’s historical underdog win rate is 41%. That’s a 16% gap—a golden opportunity for sharp bettors.
Calculating Expected Value (EV)
- Yankees’ Implied Probability: 100 / (248 + 100) = 28.8%
- A’s Implied Probability: 100 / (3.0 + 100) = 25%
- Historical Adjustment: A’s actual win rate = 41% → EV = 41% - 25% = 16% edge
- Yankees’ EV: If their actual win rate is ~35% (vs. 28.8% implied), EV = 6.2% edge
The Verdict
The A’s are a classic “numbers don’t lie” play. Their 41% historical win rate vs. the 25% implied by the +3.0 line gives them a 16% edge—the highest EV in this matchup. The Yankees’ -248 line is a “safe” bet, but it’s overpriced for a team that’s only 13.5 games better than the A’s in the standings.
Best Bet: Oakland Athletics (+3.0 Moneyline)
- Why? The A’s have a 41% chance to win (per MLB trends), vs. the 25% implied by the line.
- Risk: The Yankees’ offense is elite, but the A’s have shown they can hit HRs.
- Payout: A $100 bet nets $300 if the A’s pull off the upset.
Honorable Mention: Over 9 Runs (+1.91)
The Yankees score 5.1 R/G; the A’s allow 5.2 R/G. The total is set at 9, which feels low for a game involving two above-average offenses. The Over has a 52.3% implied probability (1 / 1.91), but the actual total should be closer to 10.1 (5.1 + 5.2). That’s a 10% edge for the Over—solid, but not as juicy as the A’s moneyline.
Final Thought
The Yankees are a “sure thing” for the casual bettor. The sharp money? It’s on the A’s to pull off the stunner. After all, baseball is the only sport where a team can go from 33-50 to 34-50 in a single game—and still have a 41% chance to win.
Bet the A’s at +3.0. Let the underdog magic begin. 🐆⚾
Created: June 28, 2025, 4:23 a.m. GMT