Prediction: Oakland Athletics VS Pittsburgh Pirates 2025-09-21
Pirates vs. Athletics: A Tale of Two Timezones (and One Disjointed Offense)
The Pittsburgh Pirates (66-89) and Oakland Athletics (73-82) are set to clash in a late-season game that’s less about playoff hopes and more about proving they’re not completely embarrassed by the calendar. Let’s break this down with the statistical precision of a spreadsheet and the humor of a middle-schooler explaining a dad joke.
Parsing the Odds: Why This Game Feels Like a Math Test
Moneyline: Pirates are -104 favorites, meaning they’re basically the “safe bet” if you’re the type who puts deodorant on a dare. The Athletics are +104 underdogs, which is sportsbook code for “we’re not sure these guys can hit the ocean with a bucket, but hey, stranger things have happened.”
Implied Probabilities:
- Pirates: 100 / (104 + 100) = 49.0% chance to win (statistically, they’re just slightly less likely to lose than a toddler in a chess tournament).
- Athletics: 100 / (104 + 100) = 49.0% chance to win (same odds as the Pirates, but with more “rah-rah underdog” vibes).
Spread: The Athletics are getting +1.5 runs, which is like giving a cheetah a 15-yard head start in a race against a tortoise. The over/under is 8.5 runs, and with the Pirates’ pitching staff (3.85 ERA, 8th in MLB) vs. the Athletics’ offense (.253 BA, 214 HRs, 5th in MLB), this feels like a “will the pitcher’s ERA stay above zero?” proposition.
Digesting the News: Injuries, Power, and a Toaster in a Bakery
Pirates:
- Mike Burrows (2-4, 4.10 ERA) starts for Pittsburgh, fresh off a season where he struck out 94 batters in 90⅔ innings. Think of him as a human windmill—less “I’m here to win” and more “I’m here to keep the game from being a total farce.”
- Offensively, they’re the MLB’s least explosive team (110 HRs, .230 BA). Their offense is like a toaster in a bakery: present, but only there to make the bread feel inadequate.
- Injuries: They’ve lost Ronny Simon and three others to the IL. It’s like a group project where half the team ghosted the day before the deadline.
Athletics:
- Mitch Spence (3-5, 4.48 ERA) toes the rubber for Oakland, a pitcher whose WHIP (1.328) suggests he’s more of a “let’s just get this over with” type.
- Offensively, they’re a power-hitting circus (.253 BA, 214 HRs). Think of them as a team of overachieving squirrels—chaotic, occasionally destructive, but good at finding acorns (i.e., home runs).
- Injuries: The A’s have 12 players on the IL, including Gunnar Hoglund and Jose Leclerc. It’s like a family reunion where everyone’s in the hospital.
Humorous Spin: Baseball as a Reality Show
The Pirates’ pitching staff is so good, they’d make a shutout feel like a mercy killing. Last time out, they shut down the A’s 2-0, with rookie Bubba Chandler striking out six while allowing one hit. It was like watching a librarian defend a thesis against a toddler with a rubber chicken.
The Athletics, meanwhile, are the “We’ll Figure It Out Later” crew. Their 4.68 ERA is worse than a college student’s credit score, but their offense? A nuclear-powered slugging percentage. They’ve hit more HRs than the Pirates have wins (214 vs. 66). If baseball were a cooking show, the A’s would be the team that burns the chicken but somehow wins because the judge loves the side dish.
And let’s talk about the spread. The Athletics are getting +1.5 runs, which is generous enough to let them win if they score two. It’s like giving a penguin a jetpack and betting it can outrun a cheetah.
Prediction: The Unlikely Triumph of the Toaster
On paper, the Pirates’ elite pitching (3.85 ERA) and recent shutout performance give them the edge. Burrows’ 4.10 ERA isn’t dazzling, but it’s better than Spence’s 4.48, and the A’s offense? They’ll need to hit home runs out of the park just to stay competitive.
But here’s the twist: The Athletics have won 47.4% of games as underdogs this season, which is statistically impressive for a team that’s basically a spreadsheet error in human form. Their power-hitting could exploit any hiccups from Burrows, and with the Pirates’ anemic offense (.230 BA), a single misplayed fly ball could decide this.
Final Verdict: Take the Pirates (-1.5) for the spread, but if you’re feeling spicy, the Athletics +1.5 could shock you. After all, baseball’s greatest tradition is the underdog pulling off the impossible—like a team with a .230 BA somehow stringing together three hits in a row.
Final Score Prediction: Pirates 3, Athletics 2. A low-scoring, nail-biter where the Pirates’ pitching finally gets the last laugh. Unless the A’s pull a “Hail Mary” HR. Then it’s 5-3 A’s, and we all look foolish. But that’s baseball!
Created: Sept. 21, 2025, 2:22 p.m. GMT