Prediction: Ole Miss Rebels VS Mississippi State Bulldogs 2025-11-28

Egg Bowl Showdown: Ole Miss Rebels vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs
Where the Yolk Meets the Sizzle

The 98th iteration of the Egg Bowl pits the No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels (10-1, 6-1 SEC) against the Mississippi State Bulldogs (5-6, 1-6 SEC) in a clash that’s less “football game” and more “David vs. Goliath with a side of grits.” Let’s crack this open with the precision of a chef cracking a dozen eggs—quickly, confidently, and with zero regard for the yolk.

Parsing the Odds: A Mathematically Sound Case for Ole Miss
Ole Miss enters as a -285 moneyline favorite, which translates to a 74% implied probability of victory. For context, that’s roughly the same chance of surviving a solo trip to the grocery store during a Black Friday sale. Mississippi State, at +330, offers a 23% chance to pull off the upset—about the odds of your Uncle Bob finally remembering your name at Thanksgiving.

The spread is Ole Miss -7.5, with the total set at 62.5 points. The Rebels’ recent 34-24 win over Florida showcased Kewan Lacy’s 224-yard, 3-TD rushing feast and QB Trinidad Chambliss’s 301-yard, 1-TD, 1-INT performance. Meanwhile, Mississippi State’s Blake Shapen is a QB who’d make a running back jealous: 199 passing yards, 2 picks, but 2 rushing touchdowns in their last loss. If Shapen’s legs are his secret weapon, he’s playing for the wrong team—this guy needs to audition for the Dallas Cowboys’ practice squad.

The Under 62.5 total is a lock for purists. Ole Miss’s clock-chewing, methodical drives (think of them as the football version of a Netflix documentary) and Mississippi State’s anemic offense (28.4 PPG, 15th in SEC in total defense) suggest a game where points dry up faster than a Mississippi summer.

News from the Nest: Injuries, Rivalry, and Coaching Drama
Ole Miss is riding a 4-game win streak, with Lacy and Chambliss forming a duo as unstoppable as a po’boy in New Orleans. Their defense? A sieve that’d make a Swiss cheese farmer weep. But hey, if you’re Mississippi State’s offense, facing Ole Miss’s defense is like trying to dunk a grape—possible in theory, but extremely frustrating in practice.

Mississippi State’s woes are… colorful. Their defense allows 393.2 yards per game and 28.4 points per game, which is SEC-level generosity. QB Blake Shapen’s stat line reads like a cautionary tale: 199 yards, 2 interceptions, but 2 rushing TDs. If Shapen were a pizza, he’d be “pepperoni with a side of regret.”

And let’s not forget the drama: Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin may be on the hot seat, with his future “expected to be announced” this weekend. Will this be a “last hurrah” for Kiffin? Probably not—this is Mississippi, where coaching jobs are as stable as a Jell-O shot on a trampoline.

The Verdict: A Yolk-Dominated Affair
When you combine Ole Miss’s 7-point spread, Mississippi State’s porous defense, and the fact that the Under has hit in 9 of the last 10 Egg Bowls, the math screams “Ole Miss -7.5” and “Under 62.5.” The Rebels’ offense is a well-oiled Delta machine, and Mississippi State’s defense is a sieve that’d let a toddler score a touchdown.

Final Prediction: Ole Miss 34, Mississippi State 23. The Rebels’ clock-control mastery and Lacy’s running game will suffocate the Bulldogs, while Shapen’s arm will fling more interceptions than a toddler at a birthday party.

Bet Smart, Bet Happy: Take Ole Miss -7.5 (-110) and Under 62.5 (-105). If you’re feeling spicy, throw in a moneyline parlay—but only if you enjoy watching your bankroll evaporate like a puddle in a Mississippi heatwave.

Go get ‘em, Rebels. And for the love of all that is holy, tie your shoelaces, Blake. 🏈🥚

Created: Nov. 28, 2025, 1:23 p.m. GMT

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