Prediction: Oregon St Beavers VS Louisville Cardinals 2025-06-17
The stage is set for a thrilling matchup in the Men's College World Series (MCWS) as the Oregon State Beavers (OSU) face off against the Louisville Cardinals. The Beavers are looking to bounce back from their first defeat at the MCWS, a 6-2 loss to Coastal Carolina, while the Cardinals are likely feeling confident with a favorable matchup.
Team Analysis
The Beavers' defense struggled in their previous game, committing two errors, including a costly one by AJ Singer. Their bullpen was also shaky, but they're not ones to back down from a challenge. As Singer aptly put it, "We love elimination games. This is nothing new to us, and we're ready for what's to come."
On the other hand, we don't have much information about the Cardinals, but their odds of winning are around 2.5-2.64, implying a win probability of around 28-29%.
Starting Pitchers and Injuries
Dax Whitney, a Second-Team Freshman All-American, will take the mound for OSU. There are no significant injury updates for either team, which means we can expect a relatively healthy matchup.
Odds and Expected Value
The odds for the matchup are as follows:
| Bookmaker | Louisville Cardinals | Oregon St Beavers |
| --- | --- | --- |
| DraftKings | 2.6 | 1.48 |
| FanDuel | 2.64 | 1.47 |
| BetMGM | 2.5 | 1.5 |
To calculate the Odds Expected Value, we need to assign a win probability to each team. Based on their historical performance and recent games, let's assume the Beavers have a 65-67% chance of winning ( roughly the inverse of their odds).
Using the mid-point of these probabilities (66%), we can calculate the expected value for each team:
Expected Value (EV) = (probability of winning * odds) - (probability of losing * 1)
Assuming a bet size of 1 unit:
EV (Beavers) = (0.66 * 1.485) - (0.34 * 1) ≈ 0.32
EV (Cardinals) = (0.34 * 2.575) - (0.66 * 1) ≈ 0.15
Best Bet
Based on these calculations, the Oregon St Beavers have the highest expected value, making them the best bet. With an implied win probability of around 65-67%, they're likely to bounce back from their previous loss.
Recommendation
Bet on the Oregon St Beavers with a moneyline odds of 1.48-1.5. If you want to be more conservative, you could consider the Beavers -1.5 run line, which might provide more value.
Keep in mind that these calculations are based on limited information and might not reflect any late-breaking news or updates. Nonetheless, based on the provided data, the Beavers seem like the smart choice.
Created: June 16, 2025, 10:38 a.m. GMT