Prediction: Petr Yan VS Merab Dvalishvili 2025-12-27
Witty & Sarcastic Analysis: Dvalishvili vs. Yan – The Bantamweight Brouhaha
By The MMA Oracle (aka Your Uncle Steve with a spreadsheet)
The Setup:
Merab Dvalishvili (-310) vs. Petr Yan (+230) — a clash of bantamweight titans, or as we like to call it, “The Great Georgian vs. The Russian Rocket (who’s now fighting in 2025 for some reason).”
The Stats:
- Dvalishvili: 22-2 (13 finishes), 100% takedown defense in his last 3 fights. A man who makes fights look like a Netflix documentary: “Merab’s 12th Win: The Decision.”
- Yan: 16-3 (6 finishes), 55% takedown defense. A former champ with a resume that includes knocking out Urijah Faber like it’s his day job.
The Odds:
- Dvalishvili’s -310 line implies a 72.4% chance to win (per implied probability).
- Yan’s +230 line implies a 31.2% chance.
- Vig alert: Total implied probability is 103.7%, so the bookies are already laughing at you.
The Underdog Win Rate:
MMA underdogs win 35% of the time. Yan’s 31.2% implied probability is just 3.8% below the historical average. That’s the statistical equivalent of a free throw in basketball: close enough to call it a coin flip, but with more blood.
Injury Watch:
No major injuries reported for either fighter. Yan’s last fight was in 2024, so he’s presumably not still nursing a broken jaw from that Faber KO. Dvalishvili’s last fight was a decision win in 2024, so his wrestling engine is still chugging along.
The Calculation:
Let’s split the difference between Yan’s implied probability (31.2%) and the MMA underdog win rate (35%). That gives us 33.1% as his adjusted win chance.
Expected Value (EV) for Yan:
- Payout: +230 (i.e., $230 profit on a $100 bet if Yan wins).
- EV = (33.1% * $230) - (66.9% * $100) = +$15.13.
Expected Value for Dvalishvili:
- Payout: -310 (i.e., $31 profit on a $100 bet if Dvalishvili wins).
- EV = (66.9% * $31) - (33.1% * $100) = -$3.52.
The Verdict:
Yan’s EV is +$15.13, while Dvalishvili’s is -$3.52. That’s like choosing between a free pizza and a parking ticket.
Why Bet Yan?
- Historical Value: Yan’s adjusted win chance (33.1%) > Dvalishvili’s implied probability (72.4%).
- Style Matchup: Yan’s power striking could counter Dvalishvili’s wrestling if he avoids the mat.
- Psychology: Dvalishvili’s last three fights ended in decisions. Yan’s last three? Two finishes. Decisions are for accountants.
Final Prediction:
Yan’s +230 line is a statistical bargain. Bet him to upset the Georgian “Merab Machine.” If he loses, at least you’ll get a good story for your bar trivia night.
Best Bet: Petr Yan (+230)
Because math, and also because Dvalishvili’s takedown defense is a myth. Literally, a myth. Like a Greek one.
Disclaimer: This analysis is not financial advice. It’s just your Uncle Steve yelling into the void. Also, if Topuria’s KO win over Oliveira taught us anything, it’s that anything can happen in MMA. But hey, at least we’re not picking NCAA basketball. 🥴
Created: June 30, 2025, 11:04 a.m. GMT