Prediction: Phoenix Mercury VS Golden State Valkyries 2025-07-14
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries: A Clash of Resurgence and Resilience
By The Sportswriter Who Still Can’t Believe the Valkyries Exist
Contextualizing the Matchup: A Bay Area Love Letter with a Side of Basketball
The Golden State Valkyries, fresh off their historic 100-point eruption against the Las Vegas Aces, return to the Chase Center for a game draped in local pride. Bay Area Women’s Basketball History Night isn’t just a theme—it’s a demand. The first 10,000 fans will receive a wristband, a token of loyalty that probably won’t fetch much on eBay but will make them feel like they’ve unlocked a secret level of basketball fandom. Meanwhile, the Phoenix Mercury arrive as the WNBA’s version of a well-tailored suit: polished, confident, and with a six-time All-Star (DeWanna Bonner) who just rolled back the clock after a brief hiatus.
Let’s not mince words: This game is a chess match played on a court. The Valkyries, at 10-10, are the scrappy underdogs with a recent hot streak (7-4 in June, 4-1 ATS in their last five). The Mercury, at 14-6, are the Western Conference’s second-string royalty, fresh off wins over the Dallas Wings and Minnesota Lynx that had the statistical precision of a NASA launch. But here’s the twist: The Valkyries nearly toppled the Aces, a team led by A’ja Wilson (WNBA MVP, scorer of 34 points in that game, and general menace to anyone wearing gold and black). If the Valkyries can defend like they scored, they might just make Phoenix sweat.
Key Data Points: Numbers That Make You Question Reality
Let’s start with the obvious: Kayla Thornton is the Valkyries’ secret weapon. She’s among the WNBA’s top 10 in double-doubles this season, a stat that sounds innocuous until you realize it means she’s grabbing boards and racking up points like a one-woman recycling bin. In their 104-102 loss to the Aces, the Valkyries’ offense was a broken VCR—glitchy, confusing, and nobody knew where the tape ended—but Thornton kept it from combusting.
On the Mercury’s side, Satou Sabally is the human embodiment of “Swiss Army Knife.” At 19.1 points and 7.7 rebounds per game, she’s the team’s primary scorer and rebounder, which is like being both the quarterback and the punter in football. Then there’s Alyssa Thomas, whose 9.5 assists per game make her the WNBA’s answer to a spreadsheet enthusiast—organized, efficient, and always one step ahead. But the real plot twist? DeWanna Bonner, the six-time All-Star, returned to Phoenix and was immediately coddled by the coaching staff. “They gave me a warm welcome and checked on my mental health before making any major decisions,” she said. Translation: Bonner is a 34-year-old veteran who’s been through enough to know that “team chemistry” is just a fancy term for “no one arguing about who takes the last donut.”
Now, let’s talk about the head-to-head history. The Mercury won their previous meeting 86-77, a game that felt less like basketball and more like a chess match where the Valkyries forgot how to castle. But here’s the rub: The Valkyries have since hit 100 points for the first time in franchise history. That’s not just a milestone—it’s a middle finger to their own past.
Odds & Strategy: The Math of Drama
The betting lines tell a story of cautious optimism for Phoenix. At DraftKings, the Mercury are listed at +2.02 (implied probability: ~49.5%), while the Valkyries sit at -1.5 on the spread. FanDuel and BetMGM offer similar numbers, with Phoenix’s implied chances hovering around 51-52%. On paper, this looks like a toss-up, but let’s dig deeper.
The WNBA’s historical underdog win rate is roughly 38%, according to the 2024 Season Analysis Report (yes, I have a subscription to that). If we split the difference between the implied 50% for Phoenix and the historical 38% for underdogs, we get a 44% expected win rate for the Valkyries. That’s not just math—it’s the sports equivalent of betting on a cat to win a nap contest. The numbers favor Phoenix, but the drama favors Golden State.
Let’s calculate the expected value (EV) for a $100 bet on the Valkyries at -1.5 on the spread. If the implied probability of Phoenix winning is ~50%, and the Valkyries’ adjusted probability is ~44%, the EV formula looks like this: <br/>EV = (Probability of Winning * Payout) - (Probability of Losing * Stake) <br/> = (0.44 * $100) - (0.56 * $100) <br/> = -$12 <br/>
Negative EV? That’s the sports betting version of ordering a “healthy” salad and getting a side of regret. But here’s the kicker: The Valkyries’ recent form (4-1 ATS in their last five) suggests their true win probability might be closer to 55%. If we use that number: <br/>EV = (0.55 * $100) - (0.45 * $100) = +$10 <br/>
Suddenly, it’s a coin flip between logic and lunacy. And isn’t that the beauty of sports?
The Decision Framework: Why Phoenix Might Fall Flat
While the numbers lean toward Phoenix, basketball isn’t just math—it’s psychology, fatigue, and the occasional rogue fan who thinks they’re part of the game. The Mercury’s recent schedule has been a cakewalk (beating Dallas and Minnesota), but their next two games are against the Valkyries and the Lynx, the latter of whom will be out for blood after losing to the Sky. That’s the WNBA version of “fight night at the bar”: everyone’s drunk, no one’s thinking straight, and someone’s going home with a black eye.
The Valkyries, meanwhile, have momentum. Their 100-point game wasn’t just a fluke—it was a declaration. And let’s not forget: They’re playing at home, where the atmosphere is loud enough to make A’ja Wilson’s highlight reels cringe. The Mercury’s road record (5-3) is solid, but the Chase Center is a fortress.
Final Verdict: The Underdog’s Case for the Prosecution
Here’s the rub: The Mercury are good, but they’re not unbeatable. Their 14-6 record is built on consistency, not dominance. The Valkyries, on the other hand, have the fire of a team that just hit 100 points for the first time. In basketball, that’s the equivalent of a kid who just learned to ride a bike—reckless, unpolished, but impossible to ignore.
Pick: Golden State Valkyries (+1.5) ATS
Why? Because the spread reflects Phoenix’s slight edge, but the Valkyries’ recent energy and home-court advantage make them a dangerous underdog. Plus, let’s be honest: The first 10,000 wristbands are a psychological weapon. Phoenix might have DeWanna Bonner, but Golden State has Bay Area vibes. And in sports, vibes matter more than you’d admit.
Final Score Prediction: Phoenix Mercury 89, Golden State Valkyries 87. But don’t be surprised if the Valkyries pull off the upset—after all, this is the same team that hit 100 points for the first time. They’ve already defied history. Why stop now?
Created: July 14, 2025, 7:07 a.m. GMT