Prediction: Phoenix Mercury VS New York Liberty 2025-06-19
Witty Analysis: Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty (2025-06-19)
“The Phoenix Mercury are 8-4, riding a two-game winning streak, and led by Satou Sabally’s 20.6 PPG. The New York Liberty are 1.13 on the moneyline. Let’s just say the odds are so lopsided, even a blindfolded fan could see it coming.”
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### Key Stats & Context
- Phoenix Mercury (8-4): Second in the WNBA, with Sabally (20.6 PPG, 7.9 RPG) and Alyssa Thomas (14.4 PPG, 9.0 APG) leading the charge.
- New York Liberty (??-??): Favorites at -11.5 (1.91) and 1.13 moneyline. Just rallied from 17 points down to beat Atlanta, with Sabrina Ionescu (34 PPG) and Breanna Stewart (25 PPG) flexing their scoring prowess.
- Injuries/Updates: No major injuries reported for either team. The Liberty’s Natasha Cloud is “trying to be perfect in an imperfect game”—a mantra that might not help against Phoenix’s defense.
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### Odds Breakdown & EV Calculation
Moneyline Implied Probabilities:
- Liberty: 1 / 1.13 ≈ 88.5%
- Mercury: 1 / 6.25 ≈ 16%
Underdog Win Rate (WNBA): 32% (per your data).
Splitting the Difference:
The market implies Phoenix has a 16% chance, but history suggests underdogs win 32% of the time. The “true” probability likely falls somewhere in between—24%.
Expected Value (EV) for Phoenix:
EV = (0.24 * 6.25) - (0.76 * 1) = 1.5 - 0.76 = +0.74 (positive EV).
EV for Liberty:
EV = (0.68 * 1.13) - (0.32 * 1) = 0.76 - 0.32 = +0.44 (also positive, but lower).
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### Why Phoenix is the Slightly Smarter Bet
1. Value in the Underdog: The Liberty’s 88.5% implied win rate is absurdly high for a team that’s not a dynasty. Phoenix’s 32% historical underdog rate vs. the 16% implied gives you +16% edge.
2. Sabally’s Over/Under: Her 20.5 PPG line is laughably low. She’s averaging 20.6 PPG—+0.1 PPG over the line. Bet the Over for fun.
3. Home-Court Advantage? The Liberty are at home, but Phoenix’s defense (10th in points allowed) and road performance (5-2 ATS) suggest they can handle the pressure.
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### Final Verdict
Best Bet: Phoenix Mercury (+6.25)
- EV: +0.74 (highest among options).
- Why? The market is sleepwalking. The Liberty’s “perfect game” mantra won’t hold against Sabally’s scoring machine.
Secondary Play: Over 161.5 Total Points
- Sabally’s Over 20.5 PPG line is a lock. Add Ionescu’s 34 PPG, and this game is a points bonanza.
“The Liberty are favored because they’re good. The Mercury are undervalued because they’re not the Liberty. But in sports, the underdog is just a synonym for ‘opportunity.’ Take it.” 🏀🔥
Created: June 19, 2025, 5:19 a.m. GMT