Prediction: Phoenix Mercury VS New York Liberty 2025-07-25

New York Liberty vs. Phoenix Mercury: A Tale of Two Cities (and Two Very Different Game Plans)

Parse the Odds: The Math Doesn’t Lie (Mostly)
Let’s cut to the numbers. The New York Liberty are the overwhelming favorites here, with decimal odds hovering around 1.40 (implying a 71% chance of winning) across most books, while the Phoenix Mercury sit at 3.05 (33% implied probability). That’s the kind of spread that makes a Vegas dealer whisper, “You sure about this?” before handing over your cash. The point spread backs this up: New York is favored by 6 points, with totals set at 170.5-171.5 points. Translation? Bookmakers expect a relatively low-scoring game where the Liberty’s depth and experience shine.

Digest the News: Injuries, Additions, and a Dash of Drama
The Liberty’s recent additions read like a superhero movie. Jonquel Jones, their 2021 MVP, is back from an ankle injury, and Emma Meesseman, a former WNBA Finals MVP, is joining the fold after playing abroad. Coach Sandy Brondello’s “It’s a happy day” quote isn’t just coachspeak—it’s a masterstroke. With Meesseman’s scoring prowess and Jones’ dominance in the paint, New York’s frontcourt now looks like a luxury car dealership for basketball.

Meanwhile, Phoenix is… not having a happy day. The Mercury have lost two straight, shooting under 39% in both games—a stat that makes their offense sound like a team of blindfolded darts players. Coach Nate Tibbetts’ “That weighs on you” quote? More like “That weighs on our record.” Key players returning? Sure. But when your team’s recent efficiency looks like a spreadsheet error, even the most ardent fan might start side-eyeing the starting five.

Humorous Spin: Basketball, But Make It a Circus
Let’s be real: The Liberty’s roster is a circus, and Phoenix is the town that forgot to buy tickets. Meesseman’s return? That’s the equivalent of hiring a fire-breather to headline your show. You know the crowd’s coming. The Mercury, on the other hand, are like a trapeze artist who forgot their safety net—exciting in theory, terrifying in practice.

And don’t sleep on Sabrina Stewart and Breanna Stewart’s recent struggles. Ionescu’s fourth-quarter heroics against Indiana were so clutch, they probably earned a standing ovation from Liberty fans and a standing “why did we pay for this seat?” from Mercury supporters. As for Phoenix’s shooting woes? If their offense were a pizza, it’d be a “wait, is this just a bag of cheese?” situation.

Prediction: The Liberty Are the Main Event
Putting it all together: New York’s stacked roster, bolstered by Jones and Meesseman, faces a Mercury team shooting like they’re playing with their eyes closed. The Liberty’s 16-6 record and 6-point spread aren’t just numbers—they’re a guarantee. Phoenix’s “crucial road trip” might as well be a “crucial trip to the vending machine,” given their recent output.

Final Verdict: Bet on the Liberty unless you’re a fan of underdog narratives that end with a mercy rule. New York’s depth, Meesseman’s magic, and Phoenix’s shooting struggles point to a Liberty victory by 8-10 points. And if you’re wondering why the totals are so low? Let’s just say Phoenix’s recent games have the scoring energy of a group project in a spreadsheet class.

Go forth and bet wisely—or at least bet with a sense of humor. After all, the Mercury’s offense is a reminder that not all bad days are meant to be fixed. 🏀✨

Created: July 25, 2025, 2:14 a.m. GMT

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