Prediction: Pittsburgh Penguins VS Ottawa Senators 2025-12-18
Penguins vs. Senators: A Tale of Two Teams (and Why Ottawa Deserves the "Dad Bod" Trophy)
Ladies and gentlemen, buckle up for a hockey clash that’s equal parts statistical analysis and slapstick comedy. The Pittsburgh Penguins, fresh off a six-game losing streak that could make a vegan cry, face the Ottawa Senators in a game that’s less “showdown” and more “hope the puck doesn’t catch fire.” Let’s break it down with the precision of a Zamboni and the humor of a deflated air horn.
Parsing the Odds: Math, Not Magic
The betting lines make this a lopsided bet. Ottawa is the consensus favorite across bookmakers, with decimal odds hovering around 1.57-1.62 (implied probability: 62-64%), while Pittsburgh’s odds of 2.35-2.45 (41-43%) suggest they’re the NHL’s version of a team that forgot to show up. The spread favors Ottawa by 1.5 goals, and the total goals line sits at 6.0-6.5, with “Under” slightly more enticing given Pittsburgh’s recent defensive play (more on that in a second).
Historically, Pittsburgh has dominated Ottawa since 2013 (20-7-8), but context matters. The Pens’ last four games in Ottawa have gone to overtime—like a bad breakup that just can’t end. Yet this year’s Penguins are a shadow of their former selves, mired in a rebuild so deep even Crosby looks like he’s playing for keeps.
News Roundup: Injuries, Streaks, and One Very Tired Goaltender
Pittsburgh’s Woes:
- Evgeni Malkin is out, injured, and probably whispering “Why me?" to the hockey gods. Without him, Pittsburgh’s offense is like a penguin trying to fly—entertaining, but ineffective.
- Tristan Jarry, their former starter, was traded mid-season, leaving Stuart Skinner to inherit the net. Skinner’s debut? A statistical nightmare. It’s like handing a toddler a flamethrower and asking him to brew coffee.
- The Penguins are allowing 4.33 goals per game in their losing streak. Their defense? A sieve that would make a leaky colander blush.
Ottawa’s Silver Lining:
- Drake Batherson is the real deal, leading the team in goals and points per 60 minutes. His December Corsi For percentage (61.0%) is better than my ability to parallel park.
- Linus Ullmark has been a revelation at home, posting a .904 save percentage at the Canadian Tire Centre. On the road? Not so much. But hey, home ice is a thing, even in 2025.
- Injuries hit Ottawa too (Lars Eller out, Shane Pinto on Christmas hiatus), but Erik Karlsson is cooking with gas (7 points in 5 games). He’s the team’s emotional leader, which is saying something given the alternative.
The Humor: Because Hockey Needs More Laughs
Let’s be real: The Penguins are the NHL’s answer to a “get out of jail free” card. They’re the team that’s technically still in the playoff race but mathematically more likely to win the lottery and get hit by a bus. Their “rebuilding” phase is so loud, you could use it as a white noise machine.
Ottawa, meanwhile, is like the dad at the family reunion who’s supposed to be the life of the party but just wants to nap. Yet here they are, grinding out wins with the tenacity of a man who’s finally found the remote. Their December Corsi For percentage (4th in the league) is better than Pittsburgh’s entire personality.
And let’s not forget: This game marks the start of the Penguins’ “Dads’ Trip.” I’m 90% sure that means they’ll be playing with one eye on the clock and the other on their flight itinerary.
Prediction: Why Ottawa Will Win (and Why You Should Bet on Them)
The numbers don’t lie. Ottawa ranks 4th in Corsi For percentage and 1st in expected goals percentage this month. Pittsburgh? They’re allowing the most shots per game to right wingers, which is like leaving a buffet open for your enemies. Ullmark’s home form is a moat around Ottawa’s .500 record, while Pittsburgh’s goaltending situation is a dumpster fire dressed as a netminder.
Yes, history shows Pittsburgh has the edge in head-to-heads, but this isn’t 2017. The Penguins are a team in disarray, and the Senators are playing with the urgency of a man who’s finally learned how to use a coffee maker.
Final Verdict: Ottawa wins 3-2 in regulation, avoiding overtime for once. Bet on the Senators, or better yet, bet on your ability to not cry when Pittsburgh inevitably trips over its own skates again.
Go Pops, go. 🏒
Created: Dec. 18, 2025, 8:30 p.m. GMT