Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates VS Cincinnati Reds 2025-09-25
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: A Tale of Two Pitchers and One Very Tired Crowd
By Your Humorously Analytical AI Sportswriter
The Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates clash on September 25, 2025, in a game that’s less “epic showdown” and more “please just let the season end.” The Reds, clinging to playoff hopes like a toddler to a favorite blanket, host the Pirates, who are about as threatening as a toddler with a rubber chicken. Let’s break it down with the precision of a MLB umpire and the wit of a stand-up comic who’s had one too many hot dogs.
Parsing the Odds: Why the Reds Are the Smart Bet
The Reds are the clear -1.5-run favorite on the spread, with moneyline odds hovering around 1.61 (implied probability: ~62%). The Pirates, meanwhile, sit at +2.38 (implied probability: ~30%), which is about the same chance of me correctly guessing your favorite sandwich. The total is set at 8.5 runs, with the under slightly favored—probably because both teams’ offenses are about as explosive as a wet firework.
Key stats? The Reds rank 9th in ERA (3.92) and 14th in WHIP (1.232), while the Pirates are a sad 30th in slugging (.350) and dead last in home runs (113). Cincinnati’s offense isn’t pretty (21st in HRs), but they’ve got Elly De La Cruz (.266, 21 HRs) and Spencer Steer (74 RBI, .418 SLG) to keep things afloat. Pittsburgh’s best hope? Bryan Reynolds (73 RBI) and Andrew McCutchen, who’s hitting .240 but still somehow manages to look like a Hall of Famer in photos.
The Starters: Greene vs. Ashcraft—Ace vs. “Almost Ace”
The Reds’ Hunter Greene is a human missile launcher, having just thrown a career-best 93-game score against the Cubs (MLB’s third-highest of 2025). He’s a 93-mph fastball with a side of “I’ll strike you out, then I’ll strike you out again, then I’ll strike you out for fun.” Opposing him is Pittsburgh’s Braxton Ashcraft, who’s 4-3 with a 2.62 ERA but has a K/BB ratio of 2.87—because nothing says “dominance” like walking as many batters as you strike out.
Greene’s recent performance is the difference-maker. The Pirates’ Cy Young hopeful, Paul Skenes, has a best game score of 80 in 2025 and hasn’t pitched past the seventh inning in four of his last five starts. It’s like showing up to a chess match with a toy knight and expecting to win.
Recent News: Injuries, Momentum, and One Very Tired Team
The Reds’ loss to the Pirates on September 24 was a 11-inning marathon, with Tyler Stephenson’s ninth-inning homer tying it and Spencer Horwitz’s 11th-inning double sealing the heartbreak. Cincinnati’s offense? A leaky faucet—1 run in the 10th and 11th, folks. They’re also chasing the NL wild card, with the Diamondbacks breathing down their neck.
The Pirates, meanwhile, are 21 games under .500 and playing for pride (and maybe a better draft pick). Their recent win over the Reds was fueled by Hunter Barco’s gem, but their lineup is a “home run or bust” gamble. Bryan Reynolds is their best bet, but even he’s only hit 13 HRs in 2025—about as reliable as a slot machine at a family-friendly casino.
The Verdict: Reds Win, Pirates Lose (Again)
The Reds have the better starter, the better bullpen (14th in ERA), and a slightly better chance of not committing arithmetic errors in the late innings. The Pirates’ offense is a sinking ship, and their pitching? Well, Skenes is a star, but he’s not exactly a marathoner.
Prediction: Cincinnati Reds 4-2. The Reds’ bats will scratch out just enough runs to avoid another extra-innings thriller, and Greene will make it look easy. Bet the Reds on the moneyline unless you enjoy the catharsis of watching Pittsburgh’s Cy Young hopeful fail to close a game he’s already lost.
Final Tip: If you’re feeling lucky, take the under (8.5). Both teams’ offenses are about as coordinated as a group of manatees playing soccer. But if you want to sleep at night? Stick with the Reds. They’re the only team here not named the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Created: Sept. 25, 2025, 5:37 a.m. GMT