Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates VS Milwaukee Brewers 2025-06-23
Title: "Skenes vs. Misiorowski: The "Great" Debate – Can the Pirates Outpitch the Brewers’ Hot Streak?"
The Setup:
The Milwaukee Brewers, fresh off a 17-6 and 9-0 dismantling of the Minnesota Twins, are riding a white horse (or a Brewer’s bus) into Pittsburgh to face the Pirates. The Pirates, meanwhile, are clinging to hope that Paul Skenes—baseball’s “second-best pitcher” (behind only Tarik Skubal, apparently)—can finally make them relevant. The rookie Jacob Misiorowski, who’s thrown two starts so electrifying they should’ve been titled “Jacob’s Ladder to Greatness,” gets the nod for Milwaukee. Let’s break this down with the precision of a scout who’s seen 10,000 innings of high-A.
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### Key Stats & Context
- Paul Skenes (Pirates): 1.85 ERA, 106 Ks in 102 IP, 27 walks. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is so absurd, it makes a math teacher blush.
- Jacob Misiorowski (Brewers): 2 starts, 12 IP, 8 ER, 15 Ks, 3 BBs. Flashy but inconsistent—like a TikTok trend that’s either genius or a fire hazard.
- Brewers’ Offense: Scoring 17-6 and 9-0 in their last two games? They’re averaging 13 runs per game. If they keep this up, the Pirates’ defense might need a defibrillator.
- Pirates’ Offense: Scored 6 total runs in two losses to the Rangers. They’re like a vegan at a steakhouse—present, but not contributing.
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### Odds Breakdown
- Moneyline:
- Milwaukee: -154 (64.9% implied)
- Pittsburgh: +268 (37.3% implied)
- Spread:
- Brewers -1.5 (-110)
- Pirates +1.5 (-110)
- Total: 8.5 Runs
- Over: -110
- Under: -110
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### Injuries & Key Notes
- No major injuries listed for either team. The Pirates’ lineup is as healthy as a vegan smoothie, while the Brewers’ rotation is tighter than a nun’s budget.
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### Data-Driven Shenanigans
Let’s calculate the Expected Value (EV) for the Pirates (+268) using the 41% MLB underdog win rate:
- Pirates’ EV:
- Implied win probability: 37.3%
- Underdog win rate: 41%
- Split the difference: (41% + 37.3%) / 2 = 39.15%
- EV: (39.15% * 2.68) - (60.85% * 1) = 1.05 - 0.61 = +0.44 (Positive EV!)
For the Brewers (-154):
- EV: (64.9% * 1.54) - (35.1% * 1) = 1.00 - 0.35 = +0.65 (Also positive, but less so).
Verdict: The Pirates’ underdog EV is slightly better, but the Brewers’ dominance in recent games (13-run average) makes them a safer play.
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### Best Bets with a Side of Sarcasm
1. Pirates +1.5 (-110):
- Skenes is a strikeout machine, and the Brewers’ offense is so hot it could melt a snowman. If the Pirates keep the game close, they’ll likely win outright. The spread is a smart play given Skenes’ 1.85 ERA.
2. Under 8.5 (-110):
- Skenes vs. Misiorowski is a cyberpunk showdown of pitching excellence. The Pirates’ offense is a leaky faucet, and the Brewers’ lineup is so good they’ll probably score 5 runs and still lose. The Under is a no-brainer.
3. Pirates Moneyline (+268):
- While the EV is positive, this is a gamble. Skenes is elite, but the Brewers’ offense is a nuclear reactor. Only bet this if you’re feeling lucky (or you’ve already lost your shirt on crypto).
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Final Call:
Take the Pirates +1.5 and the Under 8.5. If you’re feeling spicy, throw in the Pirates moneyline as a parlay leg. Just don’t blame me when Skenes throws a no-hitter and the Pirates lose 1-0. It’s baseball. It’s also chaos.
Prediction: Pirates 3, Brewers 4. The Brewers win, but it’s closer than your ex’s Instagram comments.
Created: June 23, 2025, 1:24 a.m. GMT