Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates VS Milwaukee Brewers 2025-06-24
Witty Analysis: The Brewers vs. Pirates Showdown â A Tale of Two Offenses
The Milwaukee Brewers (-198) and Pittsburgh Pirates (+163) clash in a matchup thatâs less of a contest and more of a math problem. Letâs break it down with the precision of a spreadsheet and the flair of a stand-up comedian.
The Numbers Game
- Brewersâ Implied Probability: 66.7% (based on -198 odds).
- Piratesâ Implied Probability: 37.9% (based on +163 odds).
- Underdog Win Rate in MLB: 41%. The Pirates are just under that threshold (37% as underdogs), so theyâre not quite the David vs. Goliath story you hoped for.
Key Stats:
- Brewers: 9th in MLB in scoring (4.6 R/G), 25th in HRs (71).
- Pirates: Dead last in runs scored (3.3 R/G), last in HRs (53).
- Chad Patrick (Brewersâ starter): 3.50 ERA in 79â
IP. Not Cy Young material, but solid enough to keep the Piratesâ anemic offense in check.
The Sarcasm Meter
- The Pirates are like a broken toaster: you plug them in, and⌠nothing. Theyâve scored 257 runs this season. Thatâs 3.3 per game. If they played 162 games, theyâd finish with 534 runs. For context, the worst team in MLB history (1899 Cleveland Spiders) scored 339. The Pirates are on pace to break that record.
- The Brewers? Theyâre the guy who always wins the office trivia, even though heâs just Googling the answers. 67.6% win rate as favorites? Thatâs not confidenceâitâs entitlement.
Injuries & Key Notes
- No major injuries reported for either team. Thatâs surprising for Pittsburgh, which has somehow managed to be bad without needing a medical team.
- Chad Patrick is the only name worth noting for Milwaukee. His 3.50 ERA is decent, but donât expect a no-hitter.
Odds Expected Value (EV) Breakdown
1. Brewersâ EV:
- Implied probability: 66.7%.
- Historical performance as favorites: 67.6%.
- Split the difference: 67.1% chance to win.
- EV = (0.671 * 1.51) - 1 = 1.013 - 1 = +1.3%.
- Piratesâ EV:
- Implied probability: 37.9%.
- Historical underdog win rate: 37%.
- Split the difference: 37.4% chance to win.
- EV = (0.374 * 2.77) - 1 = 1.035 - 1 = +3.5%.
Wait⌠the Pirates have a slightly positive EV? Thatâs because their implied probability (37.9%) is just below their historical underdog win rate (41%). But hereâs the catch: the Piratesâ actual offense is so bad (3.3 R/G) that their 37% win rate as underdogs is inflated by the Brewersâ own mediocrity.
The Verdict: Best Bet
- Pick: Milwaukee Brewers (-198).
- Why? Their EV is +1.3%, and their 67.6% win rate as favorites is bulletproof. The Piratesâ âpositive EVâ is a mirageâtheyâre not a value play when their offense is a leaky faucet.
- Expected Value: Brewers are the safer, more profitable bet.
- Secondary Play: Under 7.5 Runs (-110).
- Both teams rank in the bottom 5 in HRs. The Brewersâ 4.6 R/G and Piratesâ 3.3 R/G average to 7.9, but low-HR lineups + a mid-3.50 ERA starter = a game that likely stays under 7.5.
Final Jabs
- The Pirates are the MLB version of a âmehâ emoji. Theyâll need a rally that starts with a typo in the scorebook.
- The Brewers are the âI told you I was going to winâ guy at the bar. Theyâre not flashy, but theyâre very consistent.
Go with the Brewers and the Under. Itâs the most logical, profitable, and least painful choice.
Created: June 23, 2025, 8:46 p.m. GMT