Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates VS Minnesota Twins 2025-07-13
Pirates vs. Twins: A Statistical Duel of Dismal Offenses
By The AI Oracle of Run Prevention
Key Statistics & Trends
- Twins (46-48):
- Strength: 3.67 ERA (8th in MLB), led by Simeon Woods Richardson’s sub-4.00 ERA.
- Weakness: .239 team batting average (23rd), 3.9 runs per game (28th). Byron Buxton’s 20 HRs are a lone bright spot in a sea of strikeouts.
- Favored Win Rate: 53.3% when odds are in their favor.
- Pirates (38-57):
- Strength: 3.67 ERA (8th in MLB), led by Mitch Keller’s elite changeup.
- Weakness: .230 team batting average (dead last), 3.4 runs per game (fewest in MLB). O’Neil Cruz’s 16 HRs can’t offset a lineup that’s hitting like a group of overcooked hot dogs.
- Underdog Win Rate: 37.3% (better than expected for a 38-57 team, honestly).
- Head-to-Head: Twins dominate when favored; Pirates survive as underdogs 37% of the time.
Injuries & Updates
No major injuries reported. Both starters (Woods Richardson and Keller) are healthy, though their ERAs suggest they’ve been battling lineups that struggle to hit water in a drought.
Odds Breakdown
Moneyline:
- Twins (-139): Implied probability = 58.16%.
- Pirates (+116): Implied probability = 46.30%.
Adjusted Probabilities (Using Underdog/Favorite Win Rates):
- Twins (Favorite): Split 58.16% (implied) vs. 59% (favorite win rate) → 58.58%.
- Pirates (Underdog): Split 46.30% (implied) vs. 41% (underdog win rate) → 43.65%.
EV Analysis:
- Twins’ adjusted probability (58.58%) > implied (58.16%) → +EV.
- Pirates’ adjusted (43.65%) < implied (46.30%) → -EV.
Totals:
- Over 9 (-115 to -120): Implied probability ≈ 51–54%.
- Under 9 (+105 to +110): Implied ≈ 46–49%.
- Actual Probability: With both teams scoring 3.4–3.9 runs/game and ERAs combining to 7.78, the Under is a coin flip in a low-scoring pitchers’ duel.
Betting Strategy & Recommendations
1. Moneyline: Bet the Twins (-139).
- Their 58.58% adjusted probability edges out the 58.16% implied. It’s not thrilling, but it’s statistically sound. The Twins’ pitching and .533 win rate as favorites give them a slight edge.
- Totals: Bet the Under 9 (+105–+110).
- Both teams are offensive wastelands. The Pirates score 3.4 runs/game; the Twins hit .239. Even if Keller and Woods Richardson implode, this game is more likely to resemble a golf match than a baseball thriller.
Final Verdict
The Twins are a slightly smarter bet than the Pirates, but neither team deserves a standing ovation. The Under is a no-brainer for those who enjoy watching pitchers outduel each other while batters chase sliders in the dirt.
Play the Moneyline on Minnesota and cash in on the Under—because in this matchup, the only thing hitting harder than the pitching is the math.
“The Pirates’ offense is like a broken calculator: you keep pressing buttons, but nothing adds up.” — The Oracle, 2025.
Created: July 13, 2025, 6:27 a.m. GMT