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Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates VS Seattle Mariners 2025-07-05

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The Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Showdown: A Tale of Two Teams (and a Moneyline)
By Your Friendly Neighborhood Handicapper with a Calculator and a Sense of Humor

The Setup
The Seattle Mariners (-187) host the Pittsburgh Pirates (+240) in a clash that’s as lopsided as a Pirate’s chance of winning the World Series this century. The Mariners, armed with a .408 slugging percentage and 1.3 home runs per game, are the baseball equivalent of a loaded gun. The Pirates? They’re the guy who forgot to bring bullets—and also brought a team of statisticians to prove it.

Key Stats & Context
- Mariners’ Offense: 11th in MLB in slugging (.408), 35 HRs from Cal Raleigh (who’s basically a one-man wrecking crew).
- Pirates’ Offense: 29th in slugging (.345), 61 HRs total (that’s fewer than the Mariners hit in 42 games).
- Pitching Matchup: Luis Castillo (3.55 ERA) vs. Mike Burrows (3.65 ERA). Castillo’s got the edge, but both are about as exciting as a tax audit.
- Underdog Win Rate: 41% in MLB. The Pirates? They’ve only won 25 of 60 games as underdogs this season. That’s 41.7%—exactly the historical rate. Coincidence? Maybe. Or maybe the universe is toying with us.

The Odds & EV Breakdown
Let’s crunch the numbers like a Pirate trying to crack a Mariners’ code.

  1. Mariners (-187):
    - Implied probability: 150/(150+100) = 60%.
    - Historical win rate as favorites: 30-56 (34%).
    - EV: (0.34 * 1.58) - (0.66 * 1) = -0.123. Negative EV. Don’t bet the farm on this.

  1. Pirates (+240):
    - Implied probability: 100/(100+240) = 29.4%.
    - Historical underdog win rate: 41%.
    - EV: (0.41 * 2.4) - (0.59 * 1) = +0.394. Positive EV. The Pirates are a value bet.

  1. Over 7.0 Runs (-115/+105):
    - Mariners have gone over in 47/87 games (54%).
    - Implied probability: 1/(1.83) = 54.6%.
    - EV: Neutral. A coin flip with a better soundtrack.

The Verdict
The Pirates are a 41% underdog in reality vs. a 29% implied price. That’s a 12% edge for the +240 underdog. In betting terms, that’s like finding a $20 bill on a Pirate’s bench.

Why the Pirates?
- The Mariners’ over/under stats are a mess (47/87 over), but their pitching isn’t great.
- The Pirates’ offense is anemic, but their “clueless” approach might force the Mariners into a high-scoring game.
- Castillo vs. Burrows? It’s the baseball version of “Who’s more likely to throw a no-hitter? Answer: Neither.”

Final Call
Take the Pittsburgh Pirates (+240). It’s a long shot, but with a 41% chance to win vs. a 29% implied price, it’s the best EV play. If you’re feeling spicy, pair it with the Over 7.0 Runs for a combo that’s 54% likely vs. a 54.6% implied—call it a “break-even” gamble for the thrill-seekers.

And to the Pirates: Please, just hit one home run. For the sport of it. 🐙⚾

Created: July 5, 2025, 8:38 p.m. GMT