Prediction: Queensland Maroons VS New South Wales Blues 2025-07-09
State of Origin III: NSW Blues vs. Queensland Maroons – A Tale of Two Teams in Turmoil
By The Handicapper’s Pundit
The Setup
The 2025 State of Origin decider is a medical marvel masquerading as a rugby league match. Both teams are limping into Sydney with more crutches than players. NSW’s Brian To’o (knee), Nathan Cleary (groin), and Jarome Luai (infection) are joined by Queensland’s Kalyn Ponga (Lisfranc foot) in the casualty ward. It’s like a hospital ward with a tackle count.
Key Injuries & Impact
- NSW Blues:
- Brian To’o (knee): The “To’o Train” is off the tracks. His absence cripples NSW’s attacking flair. Penrith coach Ivan Cleary’s “I honestly don’t know how he is” quote is less a medical update and more a cry for help.
- Nathan Cleary (groin): The halfback’s return to goal-kicking is a glimmer of hope, but his legs might not be up to snuff. Imagine a kangaroo with a sprained ankle—still dangerous, but not graceful.
- Api Koroisau (concussion): A week on the sidelines is a lifetime in Origin. His absence leaves a hole in the middle that Queensland’s forwards will exploit.
- Queensland Maroons:
- Kalyn Ponga (foot): The Knights’ star is out, and his replacement, Reece Walsh, is a wildcard. Walsh’s Origin pedigree is thin, but his talent is thicker. Think of him as a fresh bottle of wine—untested but potentially exquisite.
- Fletcher Sharpe (retired for season): The Knights’ loss is Queensland’s gain in terms of depth… if they had any.
Historical Context & Underdog Win Rates
- Queensland’s recent dominance: They’ve won the last two series, including a 2-1 triumph in 2024. But history is a fickle friend when your best playmaker is on crutches.
- Underdog win rate: 41% for rugby league (grouped with hockey/baseball/soccer). If Queensland is the favorite, their implied probability is ~59%. But with Ponga out, their actual chance might dip closer to 50-50.
Odds Expected Value (EV) Breakdown
Since no bookmaker odds are provided, we’ll use the underdog win rate as a proxy.
- Queensland’s implied EV: If they’re the favorite (59% chance), but injuries reduce their actual chance to ~50%, their EV is -10%.
- NSW’s implied EV: As the underdog (41% chance), but with Queensland’s injuries, their actual chance could rise to ~50%, giving them a +9% EV.
The Verdict
This is a match where the underdog (NSW) has the edge in EV due to Queensland’s catastrophic loss of Ponga. While NSW’s own injuries are a concern, Nathan Cleary’s potential return to goal-kicking and the Maroons’ reliance on unproven replacements like Walsh tilt the scales.
Best Bet: New South Wales Blues (+150, hypothetical odds)
- Why? Queensland’s identity as a team hinges on Ponga’s playmaking. Without him, they’re a disjointed unit. NSW’s injuries are more spread out, allowing backups to step in without losing their attacking structure.
- Split the Difference: The underdog win rate (41%) vs. Queensland’s adjusted EV (50%) creates a 9% gap. NSW’s +9% EV is the most attractive play.
Final Prediction: NSW Blues 18-16 Queensland Maroons.
“It’s not a game of rugby—it’s a medical drama with a rugby script.”
Note: If you bet on NSW, pray Nathan Cleary can kick. If you back Queensland, hope Reece Walsh doesn’t look like a deer in headlights. Either way, enjoy the chaos.
Created: June 28, 2025, 4:01 a.m. GMT