Prediction: Rizvan Kuniev VS Curtis Blaydes 2025-06-21
Witty and Tongue-in-Cheek Analysis: Curtis Blaydes vs. Rizvan Kuniev
Curtis Blaydes: The "I’ve Seen It All" Veteran
Curtis Blaydes, the 5th-ranked UFC heavyweight, is a man who’s been to the moon and back in the octagon. With a career spanning nearly a decade, he’s the guy who’ll make you eat your words if you underestimate his wrestling prowess. But let’s not sugarcoat it—Blaydes has been on a two-fight losing streak, including a first-round TKO to Tom Aspinall that left fans wondering if the "Big Cat" had finally met his match. Still, he’s a top 5 fighter for a reason: his takedown defense is elite, and his ability to grind out fights is legendary.
Rizvan Kuniev: The Contender Series Controversy
Rizvan Kuniev, meanwhile, is the "new kid on the block" with a resume that reads like a mixtape of potential and red flags. He earned his UFC contract with a flashy knockout on Dana White’s Contender Series in 2024, but his past includes a suspension for a banned substance. Kuniev’s upside? He’s a striker with power and a willingness to throw caution to the wind. His downside? He’s 0-2 in his UFC career (both losses to journeymen) and hasn’t faced anyone close to Blaydes’ level.
Key Stats & Odds Breakdown
- Blaydes’ Implied Probability: Across bookmakers, Blaydes is priced between -400 to -500 (implied ~71-72% chance to win).
- Kuniev’s Implied Probability: A paltry +250 to +285 (implied ~26-28%).
- Underdog Win Rate in MMA: 35%.
- Split the Difference: Blaydes’ actual win probability is likely ~65% (midpoint between 72% implied and 35% underdog rate).
Injury/Update Impact
- Blaydes: No injuries reported, but his recent losses suggest he’s not in peak form. His motivation? Questionable—this fight is a "step down" after chasing the interim title.
- Kuniev: No current injuries, but his past suspension raises questions about his preparation and discipline.
Expected Value (EV) Calculation
- Blaydes’ EV:
- Implied probability: 72%
- Adjusted probability: 65% (based on underdog rate)
- EV = (65% * (1/1.4) - 1) = -10.7% (negative value).
- Kuniev’s EV:
- Implied probability: 28%
- Adjusted probability: 35% (underdog rate)
- EV = (35% * (1/3.0) - 1) = +11.7% (positive value).
The Verdict: A Clash of Value and Experience
While Blaydes is the safer bet on paper, the EV math screams "Kuniev". The underdog win rate in MMA (35%) gives Kuniev a statistical edge over the inflated price of Blaydes. Blaydes’ recent losses and lack of motivation make him a risky favorite, while Kuniev’s power and aggression could capitalize on a distracted opponent.
Best Bet: Rizvan Kuniev (+285)
- Why? The EV is positive, and Blaydes’ recent struggles make him overvalued. Kuniev’s power and willingness to engage could lead to a finish if Blaydes falters.
- Risk Alert: Blaydes’ wrestling could dominate if the fight stays on the ground.
Final Prediction: Blaydes wins by decision (65% chance), but Kuniev offers better value. Take the underdog and hope for fireworks.
“Blaydes might win, but Kuniev could shock the world. Either way, it’s a reminder that in MMA, the only thing more unpredictable than the outcome is the betting line.” 🥊
Created: June 21, 2025, 5:07 p.m. GMT