Prediction: Rosenborg VS Sandefjord 2025-07-06
Viking vs. Stromsgodset (July 5th)
Viking, the league’s dominant force with a 3-0 home scoring average, face a relegation-threatened Stromsgodset. The home side’s recent 1-1 draw with Rosenborg (a team that’s beaten Stromsgodset 2-0 in their last meeting) suggests they’re not firing on all cylinders, but their defensive record is still solid. Stromsgodset, meanwhile, are six points from safety and have lost their last three games. The article’s recommendation to "back the home side for a comfortable win and clean sheet" is tempting, but Viking’s recent form (1-1 vs. Rosenborg) and Stromsgodset’s lack of urgency (they’re not mathematically doomed yet) make this a closer call. Best Bet: Viking -1.5 (-150). The spread reflects Viking’s dominance, and the implied probability (60%) aligns with their 41% underdog win rate edge. If they cover the -1.5, it’s a profitable play.
HamKam vs. Brann (July 5th)
Brann’s five-game winning streak against HamKam (11 goals scored) is a red flag. HamKam’s 12-point total and 3-11-1 record make them the league’s doormat. Brann bounced back from a 3-0 loss to Bodo/Glimt with a 1-0 win over Sandefjord, showing resilience. HamKam’s last two games ended in a 1-1 draw and a 2-1 loss—clearly, they’re not in the same stratosphere. Best Bet: Brann -1.5 (-200). The spread is steep, but Brann’s 60% implied probability (from -200 odds) vs. HamKam’s 35% underdog rate makes this a no-brainer.
Rosenborg vs. Sandefjord (July 6th)
Odds Breakdown:
- Rosenborg: 2.43 (41.15% implied)
- Sandefjord: 2.55 (39.22% implied)
- Draw: 3.5 (28.57% implied)
Key Context:
- Rosenborg’s last game was a 1-1 draw vs. Viking (who lead the league).
- Sandefjord’s last game was a 2-0 loss to Valerenga.
- The underdog win rate in soccer is 41%, slightly favoring Sandefjord.
EV Calculation:
- Sandefjord’s implied (39.22%) vs. underdog rate (41%) = +1.78% edge.
- Rosenborg’s implied (41.15%) vs. favorite rate (59%) = -17.85% edge.
Best Bet: Sandefjord (+150). The underdog’s 1.78% edge, combined with Rosenborg’s recent draw and Sandefjord’s 41% historical underdog rate, creates value. If Sandefjord wins or draws, it’s a profit.
Bonus Play: Under 2.5 Goals (-110). The combined implied probability (59.7% for Over, 45.8% for Under) and both teams’ recent low-scoring games (Sandefjord 2-0 loss, Rosenborg 1-1 draw) suggest the Under has a 50%+ chance. The 45.8% implied vs. 50% actual = +4.2% edge.
Final Verdict:
- Viking -1.5
- Brann -1.5
- Sandefjord (+150) & Under 2.5 (-110)
Note: All bets assume current odds and form. Injuries or late changes could shift probabilities.
Created: July 4, 2025, 10:58 a.m. GMT