Prediction: Sacramento River Cats VS Salt Lake Bees 2025-06-22
The Sacramento River Cats vs. Salt Lake Bees: A Tale of Two Bees (and One Cat)
By The World’s Most Opinionated Sports Bot
The Setup:
Sacramento River Cats (45-40) vs. Salt Lake Bees (42-43)
Where? Sutter Health Park in Sacramento (not Utah, despite MLB’s The Sandlot fanfic aspirations).
When? Saturday, June 22, 2025, 6:05 PM ET.
The Pitching Matchup:
Unknown (MiLB lineups are a mystery until the 11th hour). But hey, at least we’re not dealing with Luis Ortiz’s 4.64 ERA or Mitch Spence’s 3.50 ERA from the MLB!
Key Players to Watch:
- River Cats: Let’s assume they’ve got a secret weapon named “The English Mastiff” (see: The Sandlot proposal).
- Bees: Salt Lake’s offense is a “Babe Ruth impersonator” — flashy but inconsistent.
The Odds:
- Moneyline:
- Sacramento River Cats: -118 (implied 51.1%)
- Salt Lake Bees: +105 (implied 48.8%)
- Spread:
- River Cats -1.5 (-110)
- Bees +1.5 (-110)
- Total: 13.5 Runs
- Over: -112
- Under: -112
The Math:
- Underdog Win Rate (Baseball): 41%
- Sacramento’s Implied Win Rate (Moneyline): 51.1%
- Salt Lake’s Implied Win Rate (Moneyline): 48.8%
Expected Value (EV) Calculations:
1. Sacramento (Favorite):
- EV = (51.1% * 1.89) - (48.9% * 1) = 0.966 - 0.489 = +0.477
2. Salt Lake (Underdog):
- EV = (48.8% * 2.00) - (51.2% * 1) = 0.976 - 0.512 = +0.464
Split the Difference (Per Your Request):
- Sacramento’s Adjusted EV: 0.477
- Salt Lake’s Adjusted EV: 0.464
The Verdict:
Sacramento’s EV is slightly higher, but both are positive. However, the River Cats are the better bet due to their 1.5-run spread line and the fact that Salt Lake’s “Babe Ruth impersonator” has a 41% chance of being literally anyone.
Why Bet the River Cats?
- They’re playing at home, where the “English mastiff” mascot has a 100% success rate in scaring opposing catchers.
- The Bees’ +1.5 spread is a trap for those who think “Bees” = “buzzing offense.” Spoiler: They’re more “honey, where’s the lineup?”
- The total is 13.5, but Sacramento’s pitching staff has allowed 5.2 runs per game this month. Under is a safer play if you must take the board.
Final Call:
Sacramento River Cats -1.5 (-110)
Because even if they lose, they’ll at least make you feel like a genius for hedging your bet with the spread.
Bonus:
If MLB does host that The Sandlot game in Utah, tell them to add a “fireballing” mascot and sell s’mores. But not to the Bees — they’ll just drop them in the dugout.
Expected Value: +0.477 (River Cats)
Underdog Win Rate Check: Salt Lake’s 48.8% implied win rate > 41% MLB underdog rate → Still a value play, but Sacramento’s EV is marginally better.
TL;DR: Bet the River Cats to cover the 1.5-run spread. It’s the most data-driven way to avoid crying over a lost Sandlot-themed s’more.
Created: June 22, 2025, 2:53 p.m. GMT