Prediction: San Francisco Giants VS Arizona Diamondbacks 2025-09-17
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: A Tale of Two Pitchers and a Toaster Offense
The Arizona Diamondbacks and San Francisco Giants are set for a September showdown that’s less “epic rivalry” and more “two teams desperately clinging to playoff hope while pretending they’re not.” The Diamondbacks, fresh off a dramatic ninth-inning rally to beat the Giants 6-5 last week, enter as -129 favorites. The Giants? They’re the +109 underdogs, which is basically the MLB version of showing up to a costume party in regular clothes and hoping no one notices.
Let’s parse the numbers like a casino dealer on a coffee high.
Odds & Implied Probabilities
Arizona’s -129 line implies a 56.3% chance to win (129 / (129 + 100)). The Giants’ +109 line implies 48.1% (100 / (109 + 100)). Combined, that’s 104.4%—because bookmakers love to nickel-and-dime us into emotional bets. Arizona’s edge? They’ve won 51.8% of games as favorites this season, while the Giants are just 46.8% as underdogs. Not earth-shattering, but enough to make a stathead feel confident placing a bet on the D-backs while sipping a lukewarm coffee from a stadium cup.
Pitching: Verlander’s Midlife Crisis vs. Pfaadt’s “I’ll Show You” Moment
Arizona’s Brandon Pfaadt (13-8, 5.31 ERA) is the definition of a “journeyman with potential.” His 5.31 ERA isn’t pretty, but his 13 wins suggest he’s the kind of pitcher who thrives when his team’s offense smells blood. Enter the Giants’ Justin Verlander (3-10, 3.94 ERA), a Hall of Fame candidate who’s somehow posting a decent ERA while going 3-10. How? Magic? Luck? A time-traveling slider? Verlander’s record is so baffling, it makes you wonder if he’s pitching for a different team.
Verlander’s 3-10 mark is like a Netflix series with great reviews but no one watching—it’s good, but the wins just aren’t materializing. Meanwhile, Pfaadt’s 13 wins are the result of Arizona’s offense scoring 5.0 runs per game (2nd in the NL). If Pfaadt can avoid turning into a human Jell-O mold (i.e., keeping his ERA in check), the D-backs’ bats will likely do the rest.
Offense: Diamondbacks Bring the Toaster, Giants Bring the Bread
Arizona’s offense is a well-oiled toaster: not fancy, but it works. Geraldo Perdomo (.290 BA, 97 RBI) is the heating element, Corbin Carroll (.542 SLG) is the crumb tray (overflowing with power), and Ketel Marte is the “defrost” button—quietly efficient. The Giants? Their offense is a loaf of bread left in the sun: occasionally decent, but prone to mold. Rafael Devers (31 HRs, 102 RBI) is their star, but even he can’t outslug a team that hits just 161 HRs (19th in MLB).
Arizona’s 204 HRs (7th in MLB) vs. San Francisco’s 161? It’s the difference between a fireworks show and a sparkler. And let’s not forget the Diamondbacks’ .251 BA vs. the Giants’ .237—small margins, but in a low-scoring game, those decimals matter.
Injuries: Arizona’s “We’re Fine” and the Giants’ “We’re Not”
The D-backs are nursing a bunch of injured arms (Tyler Locklear, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., etc.), but their key hitters are healthy. The Giants? They’re basically the “I’ll just wing it” team. No major injuries listed, but Verlander’s 3-10 record suggests their pitching staff is winging it anyway.
The Verdict: “Rally” You Kidding Me?
Arizona’s bullpen was a fortress in their last win against the Giants, retiring 14 straight batters. If Pfaadt can survive five innings without looking like he’s pitching in a hurricane (ERA be damned), the D-backs’ offense will feast on Verlander’s inconsistency. The Giants’ pitching? Respectable, but their offense can’t keep up.
Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks 6, San Francisco Giants 4.
Why? Because the Diamondbacks’ offense is a toaster in a bakery (present and functional), Verlander’s 3-10 record is a broken umbrella in a monsoon (useless when it matters), and the Giants’ “underdog magic” ran out when they tripped over their own shoelaces in the first inning last week. Bet on Arizona, unless you’re a fan of last-minute heroics… and also have a time machine to fix Verlander’s losses.
Created: Sept. 17, 2025, 8:04 a.m. GMT