Prediction: San Jose State Spartans VS Texas Longhorns 2025-09-06

Texas vs. San Jose State: A Week 2 Redemption Tour
The No. 7 Texas Longhorns, reeling from a Week 1 shellacking by Ohio State, host the San Jose State Spartans in a game that’s equal parts “get right” and “don’t become the first team to lose to a mid-major and a team from the Mountain West.” Let’s break this down with the precision of a Texas oil drill and the humor of a student section trying to cheer through a power outage.

Parsing the Odds: A Tale of Two Power Rankings
The betting lines tell a story of stark contrasts. Texas is favored by 36.5 to 37.5 points across bookmakers, with totals hovering around 52.5 points. Translating that into implied probabilities (using decimal odds conversions), Texas’ chances of winning range from ~68-70%, while San Jose State’s implied win probability is a laughably low ~30-32%. For context, that’s about the same odds as me correctly predicting the outcome of a coin flip while blindfolded and juggling alligators.

The Spartans, meanwhile, are the definition of a “neutral-site underdog.” They lost to Central Michigan in Week 1, a team that’s about as threatening as a toddler with a water gun. But here’s the kicker: Texas’ defense, which looked like a group of sleep-deprived librarians trying to tackle a bull in Week 1, might finally get a chance to adjust.

Digesting the News: Arch Manning’s Redemption Arc and SJSU’s “We’re Not Here to Make Friends” Mentality
Let’s start with Texas’ star quarterback, Arch Manning. The son of Peyton and Eli, he’s under pressure to prove he’s not just a football dynasty’s placeholder. In Week 1, he completed just 58% of his passes for 220 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT. Not terrible, but not exactly “Heisman highlight reel” material. The good news? San Jose State’s defense ranks 14th in pass efficiency defense in the Mountain West, which is to say: they’ve had more practice at whiffing on tackles than a group of windmills in a tornado.

On the flip side, San Jose State’s offense is led by quarterback Nick Starkel, a former NFL draft pick who’s like a vintage car—parts held together by hope and duct tape. In Week 1, he threw for 248 yards but took 3 sacks. Texas’ defense, which allowed Ohio State to gain 450 yards, might as well be a sieve made of Jell-O. The Spartans’ best hope? Hope the Longhorns’ defense is still sleepwalking and that their special teams can return a punt like it’s the 1998 Sydney Crosby commercial (i.e., with dramatic, cinematic flair).

Humorous Spin: The “I’ll Be Your Hype Man, Just Don’t Sack Me” Edition
Texas’ offense is as reliable as a Texas BBQ smoker—slow, smoky, and eventually delicious. With Arch Manning looking to bounce back, the Longhorns’ playbook might as well be titled “How to Score 40 Points While Pretending You Care About Field Position.” Their running game? A herd of stampeding longhorns (obviously) led by a back who’s faster than a TikTok trend.

San Jose State? They’re the sports equivalent of that one friend who shows up to a party with a six-pack of beer, ready to outlast everyone. Their strategy is simple: “Take the shot, hope for a fluky touchdown, and pray Texas’ defense doesn’t invent the forward pass.” Their defense? A well-meaning group of students who probably signed up for a yoga class instead of strength training.

Prediction: The “Don’t Bet Your Grandma’s Wig on This” Verdict
While San Jose State will play with the heart of a thousand underdogs (and maybe a few extra players wearing “I <3 Texas” shirts to confuse the crowd), Texas’ depth, home-field advantage, and sheer experience make them the logical pick. The Longhorns’ offense should steamroll the Spartans’ defense like a combine through a wheat field, and Arch Manning will either rediscover his accuracy or at least stop throwing picks to his own grandma in the stands.

Final Score Prediction: Texas 42, San Jose State 17.
Why? Because the Spartans’ only chance at a cover is if Texas’ offense decides to take a 3-hour halftime. And even then, the Longhorns’ defense might score an interception just to prove they’re not totally useless.

Go get ’em, Texas. And San Jose State? At least you’re not the team that lost to FCS opponents in back-to-back years. Progress! 🏈

Created: Sept. 6, 2025, 2:12 p.m. GMT

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