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Prediction: Saskatchewan Roughriders VS Toronto Argonauts 2025-06-20

The Great Saskatchewan vs. Toronto Showdown: A Tale of Redemption and Revenge
By The Handicapper with a Taser and a Spreadsheet

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The Setup
The Saskatchewan Roughriders, fresh off a miraculous second-half comeback against the Hamilton Tiger-Cats (27-23), roll into Toronto to face the Argonauts. The Roughriders are -2.5-point favorites at FanDuel (odds: -1.78), while the Argonauts are +2.5 (odds: +2.04). The total is set at 48.5 points (Over: -1.95, Under: -1.87).

Key Stats & Context
- KeeSean Johnson, Saskatchewan’s 28-year-old “unbelievable receiver,” is a beast: 128 yards, 1 TD, and 8 catches in the last game. He’s been a CFL revelation after bouncing between the NFL and Canada.
- Brett Lauther, the Roughriders’ kicker, had a rough first half (0/2 FGs, 0/1 convert) but redeemed himself in the second half. His inconsistency could haunt them if Toronto’s defense applies pressure.
- Toronto’s Weakness? The Argonauts’ defense is a mystery. They’re hosting a team with a high-octane offense led by Johnson and a coach who’s obsessed with “chasing perfection.”

Injuries & Updates
No major injuries reported for either team. Saskatchewan’s coaching staff is still chasing perfection (per Corey Mace’s very humble postgame quote), while Toronto’s locker room remains a black box.

Odds & Expected Value (EV) Breakdown
Let’s crunch the numbers. The underdog win rate in the CFL is roughly 35% (proxy from NFL data). Using the given odds:

1. Saskatchewan Moneyline (-1.64)
   - Implied probability: 1 / 1.64 ≈ 60.98%
   - EV = (0.65 * 1.64) - (0.35 * 1) = +0.716

1. Toronto Moneyline (+2.30)
   - Implied probability: 1 / 2.30 ≈ 43.48%
   - EV = (0.35 * 2.30) - (0.65 * 1) = +0.155

1. **Spread

Created: June 16, 2025, 10:23 a.m. GMT

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