Prediction: Seattle Mariners VS Chicago Cubs 2025-06-22
Witty Analysis & Data-Driven Bet: Chicago Cubs vs. Seattle Mariners (2025-06-22)
By The Sassy Sabermetrician
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The Setup:
The Chicago Cubs (-112) and Seattle Mariners (+112) clash in a battle of MLB’s two most explosive offenses. The Cubs, led by their 5.3 runs/game barrage (2nd in MLB), are favored to continue their dominance as moneyline favorites, where they’ve won 69.2% of games this season. The Mariners, meanwhile, are a curious case: they’ve got Cal Raleigh’s historic power (29 HRs before the All-Star break!) and a 3.92 ERA pitching staff that’s… well, not exactly a fortress.
Key Stats & Trends:
- Cubs’ Magic: Chicago’s lineup (Kyle Tucker, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Seiya Suzuki) is a home-run machine. Their +101 run differential is the best in the NL.
- Mariners’ Weakness: Seattle’s pitching staff is the 14th-worst in MLB, and their 50% win rate as underdogs is about as reliable as a broken umbrella in a hurricane.
- Pitching Matchup: The Cubs will start Cade Horton (4.12 ERA, 10.1 K/9), while the Mariners counter with Emerson Hancock (4.75 ERA, 7.8 K/9). Neither is a Cy Young contender, but Horton’s better command gives the Cubs a slight edge.
The Numbers Don’t Lie (Mostly):
- Implied Probabilities (Moneyline):
- Cubs: 52.9% (from -112 odds)
- Mariners: 47.1% (from +112 odds)
- Historical Context:
- Baseball’s underdog win rate is 41%, so the Mariners’ implied 47.1% is optimistic.
- The Cubs’ 69.2% win rate as favorites? That’s 16.3% better than their implied probability.
Splitting the Difference (Because Why Not?):
To calculate expected value (EV), we split the gap between the Cubs’ implied probability (52.9%) and their actual performance (69.2%). The midpoint is 61.1%, giving the Cubs a 9.2% edge over the line. For the Mariners, their implied 47.1% vs. historical 41% gives a 6.1% edge in the opposite direction.
EV Calculations:
- Cubs:
EV = (61.1% * $100 profit) - (38.9% * $112 loss)
= $61.10 - $43.57 = +$17.53
- Mariners:
EV = (41% * $112 profit) - (59% * $100 loss)
= $45.92 - $59.00 = -$13.08
The Verdict:
The Cubs are a +EV play with a 61.1% chance to win, while the Mariners are a -EV gamble. Even if you split the difference between the odds and the underdog rate, the Cubs’ 9.2% edge dwarfs the Mariners’ 6.1% discount.
Best Bet:
Chicago Cubs Moneyline (-112)
Because when you’ve got a +101 run differential and a lineup that could outscore a fireworks show, you’re not just a favorite—you’re a certainty.
Honorable Mention:
Over 11.5 Runs (-110)
Both teams rank in the top 5 in MLB in runs scored. With two shaky starters on the mound, this game is a home-run derby waiting to happen.
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Final Thought:
The Mariners’ only shot is if Cal Raleigh hits a moonshot into the stratosphere and the Cubs’ offense collectively forgets how to swing a bat. Spoiler: it won’t happen. Take the Cubs and thank me later. 🎩⚾
Created: June 22, 2025, 11:55 a.m. GMT