Prediction: Seattle Mariners VS Detroit Tigers 2025-07-13
Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: A Statistical Showdown at Comerica Park
July 13, 2025 | 1:40 PM ET | Tigers (-1.5) at 1.53, Mariners (+1.5) at 2.55 | Moneyline: Tigers -190, Mariners +180
1. Key Statistics & Trends
- Tigers’ Dominance: Detroit (59-36) leads MLB, having outscored opponents by +114 run differential. They’ve won 5 of 6 against the Mariners this season and 2 of 3 in April.
- Mariners’ Struggles: Seattle (49-45) ranks 15th in MLB in scoring (4.2 R/G) and has lost 6 of their last 8 games.
- Pitching Edge:
- Jack Flaherty (Tigers): 3.80 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 8.5 K/9 in 18 starts.
- Logan Gilbert (Mariners): 4.05 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 7.2 K/9 in 12 starts.
- Power Arms: Tarik Skubal (2.02 ERA, 148 K in 116 IP) isn’t pitching, but the Tigers’ bullpen (3.68 ERA) is MLB’s 5th-best.
2. Injuries & Updates
- No Major Absences: Both teams’ lineups are intact. Cal Raleigh (Mariners) is scorching (.310 BA, 38 HRs) but has struggled vs. LHP (.220 OBP).
- Tigers’ Offense: Spencer Torkelson (21 HRs, 59 RBI) and Riley Greene (.302 BA) anchor a lineup that ranks 4th in MLB in ISO (.172).
3. Odds Breakdown & EV Calculations
Moneyline Implied Probabilities (American Odds):
- Detroit (-190): 190 / (190 + 100) = 65.7%
- Seattle (+180): 100 / (180 + 100) = 35.7%
Adjusted Probabilities (Using MLB Underdog Win Rate of 41%):
- Detroit (Favorite):
- Favorite Win Rate = 100% - 41% = 59%
- Adjusted = (65.7% + 59%) / 2 = 62.35%
- Seattle (Underdog):
- Adjusted = (35.7% + 41%) / 2 = 38.35%
EV Comparison:
- Detroit: 62.35% (adjusted) vs. 65.7% (implied) → Negative EV.
- Seattle: 38.35% (adjusted) vs. 35.7% (implied) → Positive EV.
4. Strategic Bet Recommendation
Bet the Seattle Mariners (+180).
- Why? The underdog EV is +2.65% (38.35% adjusted vs. 35.7% implied), suggesting the market underestimates their chances.
- Caveats:
- The Tigers’ 12-3 loss to Seattle last week is a red herring; Detroit’s overall dominance (5-1 season series) and Flaherty’s edge in this matchup tilt toward the Mariners needing a breakout.
- The Over/Under (8 runs) is a toss-up, but the Mariners’ power (Cal Raleigh, 81 RBI) could exploit Flaherty’s 4.3 BB/9.
Final Verdict
While the Tigers’ record and recent form scream “favorite,” the Mariners’ 41% underdog win rate in MLB and the Tigers’ inflated implied probability (-190) create a clear value play on Seattle. Bet the +180 underdog to exploit the market’s overconfidence in Detroit’s invincibility.
“The Tigers are the best team in baseball, but even the best can be beaten by a hot bat and a cold pitcher. Logan Gilbert, warm up that heater.” — The Handicapper’s Almanac
Created: July 13, 2025, 6:12 a.m. GMT