Prediction: Seattle Mariners VS New York Yankees 2025-07-09
Yankees vs. Mariners: A Tale of Two Teams, One Overhyped Favorite
The New York Yankees (-142) enter this pivotal AL wild card clash as the "favorites," a title that feels increasingly ironic given their recent 7-10 skid. Meanwhile, the Seattle Mariners (+142) have won seven of their last 10 games and are riding a 46.7% underdog win rate this season—far above the MLB average of 41%. Let’s break this down with the precision of a spreadsheet and the wit of a disgruntled sportsbook employee.
Key Matchup Insights
1. Pitching Matchup:
- Logan Gilbert (Mariners, 7-3 in 10 starts) vs. Will Warren (Yankees, 5.02 ERA). Gilbert’s team is 7-3 in his starts, but Aaron Judge has torched him for a .308 average with two doubles and four walks.
- Recent Performance: Warren rebounded from a brutal start with 5.2 shutout innings in Game 1, but his 5.02 ERA suggests he’s not a reliable anchor.
- Offensive Edge:
- The Yankees’ 4th-ranked offense (5.1 R/G) is led by Judge (.360 BA, MLB-leading 105 RBIs) and a lineup that’s hit 10 HRs in their last three games.
- The Mariners’ Cal Raleigh (35 HRs) and Austin Wells (3 HRs in a row) pose a threat, but their 8.9 R/G average is slightly below the Yankees’.
- Injuries/Lineup Notes:
- No major injuries reported for either team, but the Yankees’ recent struggles (7-10) suggest their "elite" status is more marketing than merit.
Odds Breakdown & Expected Value
Moneyline:
- Yankees (-142): Implied probability ≈ 58.7% (100 / (142 + 100)).
- Mariners (+142): Implied probability ≈ 41.3% (100 / (142 + 100)).
Historical Context:
- MLB underdogs win 41% of the time. The Mariners have defied this, winning 46.7% of their underdog games this season.
- Split the Difference:
- Yankees: (58.7% + 59%)/2 ≈ 58.8% (slightly overvalued).
- Mariners: (41.3% + 41%)/2 ≈ 41.2% (slightly undervalued).
EV Calculation:
- Yankees: (58.8% * $142) - (41.2% * $100) = $42.02.
- Mariners: (41.3% * $232) - (58.7% * $100) = $43.10.
Verdict: The Mariners offer marginally better value as underdogs, despite the odds suggesting otherwise. Their 46.7% underdog win rate this season (vs. MLB’s 41%) hints at hidden upside.
Over/Under 9.5 Runs
- Yankees: 38/89 games over (42.7%).
- Mariners: 47/90 games over (52.2%).
- Combined Scoring: Yankees (5.1 R/G) + Mariners (assumed ~4.8 R/G) = 9.9 R/G.
- Implied Over Probability: ~53.5% (1 / 1.87).
EV for Over: (53.5% * $100) - (46.5% * $100) = +$7.00.
Best Bet: Mariners (+142) & Over 9.5 Runs
Why?
- The Yankees’ recent 7-10 stretch and Warren’s 5.02 ERA make them a shaky favorite.
- The Mariners’ 46.7% underdog win rate and Judge’s 4-for-13 vs. Gilbert create a mismatch in value.
- The Over 9.5 is a no-brainer with two high-scoring offenses and a combined 9.9 R/G average.
Final Call: Bet the Mariners at +142 and the Over 9.5. If you must go with the favorite, the Yankees’ spread (-1.5, +228) is a safer play, but the underdog and over are where the EV shines.
“The Yankees are like a 5-star restaurant that forgot to cook the main course. The Mariners? They’re just here to eat the appetizers and laugh at the bill.” — Your friendly neighborhood handicapper.
Created: July 9, 2025, 11:40 a.m. GMT