Prediction: Seattle Mariners VS Texas Rangers 2025-06-28
Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: A Tale of Two Teams, One Glaringly Obvious Pick
By The Handicapper Who Still Uses a Fax Machine
The Setup
The Mariners and Rangers are locked in a tight AL Wild Card battle, with Seattle (42-39) clinging to a 1.5-game lead over Texas. After a 12-inning opener that featured a baseball miracle (aka Miles Mastrobuoni’s game-saving catch and walk-off single), Game 2 is a chance for the Rangers to avoid a series sweep—or for the Mariners to flex their “we’re not dead yet” muscles.
Pitching Matchup: Bryan Woo vs. Kumar Rocker
- Bryan Woo (SEA): The Mariners’ 26-year-old lefty has been a revelation this season, posting a 3.20 ERA and 1.20 WHIP with 135 strikeouts in 135 innings. He’s been particularly effective against right-handed hitters (.230 AVG vs. RHBs), and the Rangers’ lineup is loaded with them (10 of 14 starters are RHBs).
- Kumar Rocker (TEX): The Rangers’ 23-year-old rookie has been a rollercoaster, with a 4.50 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in 123 innings. His control issues (4.2 BB/9) and lack of a dominant secondary pitch make him a risky proposition against a Mariners offense that’s hitting .265 with 10 HRs in his starts.
Key Stats & Trends
- Mariners’ Offense: Inconsistent but explosive. They’ve scored 7+ runs in 14 of their last 20 games but also been shut out twice. J.P. Crawford and Julio Rodríguez are red-hot (.320/.380/.610 combined in June).
- Rangers’ Offense: Needs a spark. They’re hitting just .235 in June, with Corey Seager’s .240/.330/.450 line dragging down the middle of the order.
- Home Field Advantage: Globe Life Field is a hitter’s park (106 OPS+), but the Rangers are just 16-15 at home this season.
Injuries & News
- Nathan Eovaldi (Rangers) returned from the IL in Game 1 but struggled (4 ER in 3 IP). He’s not in the rotation for this game, so the Rangers are relying on Rocker.
- No major injuries reported for the Mariners, though Cal Raleigh’s 32 HRs/69 RBI make him a must-watch.
Odds & Expected Value
- Moneyline:
- Mariners: -115 (implied probability: 53.3%)
- Rangers: -105 (implied probability: 51.2%)
- Spread: Mariners -1.5 (-110) / Rangers +1.5 (-110)
- Total: Over 7.5 (-110) / Under 7.5 (-110)
The Math
- Underdog Win Rate in MLB: 41%
- Mariners’ Implied Win Probability: ~53.3% (vs. 41% historical underdog rate for the Rangers).
- EV Calculation:
- Mariners Moneyline: (53.3% * $100) - (46.7% * $100) = +6.6% EV
- Rangers Moneyline: (46.7% * $100) - (53.3% * $100) = -6.6% EV
The Verdict
The Mariners are the clear +EV play here. Bryan Woo’s dominance, the Rangers’ shaky offense, and the lack of a viable underdog narrative (Rangers are actually the favorites in this matchup) make Seattle the logical choice. The spread (-1.5) is too steep for the Mariners’ inconsistent offense, and the total is a coin flip.
Best Bet: Seattle Mariners Moneyline (-115)
Why? The math checks out, the pitching matchup is lopsided, and the Rangers’ offense is too tired to rally. Unless Kumar Rocker becomes a cyborg overnight, this is a Mariners cover.
Final Prediction: Mariners 5, Rangers 3
Bonus Prediction: Julio Rodríguez hits a solo HR in the 3rd inning. You heard it here first.
Created: June 28, 2025, 2:44 p.m. GMT