Prediction: Seattle Storm VS Atlanta Dream 2025-07-03
WNBA Showdown: Seattle Storm vs. Atlanta Dream – A Tale of Two Traumas
By The Handicapper’s Scribe
The WNBA’s most thrilling rivalry? No, not the Storm vs. Lynx. That’s last year’s drama. This year, it’s the Seattle Storm vs. the Atlanta Dream—a clash of two teams with enough drama to fill a Netflix docuseries. Let’s break it down with the precision of a point guard and the wit of a sarcastic sideline reporter.
The Matchup: Storm (7-6) vs. Dream (8-5)
When: July 3, 2025 | Where: Atlanta, GA | Odds: Pick’em (1.91-1.93)
Key Prop Bets:
- Skylar Diggins-Smith (SEA): Over 20.5 Points (-110)
- Rhyne Howard (ATL): Under 16.5 Points (-110)
- Nneka Ogwumike (SEA): Over 22.5 Points (-110)
The Plot Twist: Injuries and Revenge
The Storm are reeling after a 57-point loss to the Las Vegas Aces. Yes, you read that right. Fifty-seven. That’s the kind of loss that makes you question if they’re using a different sport’s rules. Meanwhile, the Dream are coming off a 90-81 win over the New York Liberty, with Jordin Canada and Brittney Griner leading the charge.
But here’s the rub: Rhyne Howard (Atlanta’s star) is day-to-day with an upper-body injury. Does that matter? Maybe not. The Dream have a 7-2 home record this season and a bench deep enough to start a second WNBA team. If Howard’s out, Jordin Canada (14.3 PPG) and Allisha Gray (12.1 PPG) will step up. Seattle’s Nneka Ogwumike, meanwhile, is a beast (22.5 PPG), but can she carry the Storm after their historic collapse?
Odds Breakdown & Expected Value
Let’s crunch the numbers like a point guard in crunch time.
Moneyline Implied Probabilities
- Atlanta Dream (1.93): 51.8%
- Seattle Storm (1.89): 52.9%
Wait, what? The Storm are the favorites despite their 57-point loss? That’s the market’s way of saying, “Hey, maybe they’ll bounce back!” But let’s split the difference between the implied probability and the underdog win rate (using NBA’s 32% as a proxy).
- Atlanta’s Adjusted EV: (51.8% + 32%) / 2 = 41.9%
- Seattle’s Adjusted EV: (52.9% + 32%) / 2 = 42.4%
Still a toss-up? Not quite. The Storm’s recent performance (a 57-point loss) suggests their actual probability is lower than the 52.9% implied. Meanwhile, Atlanta’s home dominance (7
Created: July 3, 2025, 7:35 p.m. GMT