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Prediction: SMU Mustangs VS Mississippi St Bulldogs 2025-11-28

SMU Mustangs vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs: A Three-Point Tango in Starkville

The SMU Mustangs (7-0) and Mississippi State Bulldogs (3-3) clash on November 28, 2025, in a game that’s less “March Madness” and more “November Nervousness.” Let’s break down the numbers, news, and why this matchup is like a game of chess played with basketballs.

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Parsing the Odds: A Tale of Two Three-Pointers
The betting line has SMU as 1.5-point favorites, with a total of 164.5 points. Converting the decimal odds (SMU at ~1.85, Mississippi State at ~1.95) gives implied probabilities of 54% for SMU and 51% for Mississippi State—a statistical arm-wrestle.

Key stats? SMU averages 7.4 made three-pointers per game, while Mississippi State allows 8.3. Conversely, Mississippi State nails 9.0 threes per game, outpacing SMU’s 8.3 allowed. It’s a numbers game: If the Bulldogs hit their bombs, they stay in it. If SMU’s sharpshooters connect, it’s a laugher.

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Digesting the News: Home-Court Advantage and Unproven Road Warriors
Mississippi State enters with a 3-0 home record, but let’s not confuse “home cooking” with “invincibility.” Their 3-0 home streak includes wins over teams that combined to go 12-20 last season. Meanwhile, SMU’s 7-0 record is built on a three-game winning streak over Miami, Boston College, and Louisville—but this is their first true road game of the season.

For SMU, Kevin Miller is the star, averaging 20.3 points and looking like a man who’s never heard of a “traveling” violation. Mississippi State’s Josh Hubbard (24.5 PPG) and Jayden Epps (46.3% shooting) are their offensive engines. But here’s the rub: Mississippi State’s defense is a sieve when it comes to threes, and SMU’s offense is a high-pressure firehose.

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Humorous Spin: Bulldogs Barking Up the Wrong Tree
Mississippi State’s home-court advantage is like a toddler with a megaphone—loud, proud, and occasionally terrifying. Their three-point shooting? A fireworks show if they hit, a trip to the dark room if they don’t. SMU, meanwhile, is like a well-oiled Swiss watch: precise, predictable, and slightly smug.

The Bulldogs need to “bark up the right tree” and hope their three-pointers fall like acorns in autumn. SMU’s defense, meanwhile, is a velvet rope for perimeter shots—let them in, but don’t let them stay long.

And let’s not forget the spread: 1.5 points. That’s the length of a regulation jump shot, the thickness of a coach’s patience, and the margin between “we’re decent” and “we’re doomed.”

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Prediction: A Three-Point Thriller, SMU Style
While Mississippi State’s home crowd will吼 like a pack of wolves, SMU’s balanced attack and superior three-point shooting (7.4 vs. 8.3 allowed) give them the edge. The Bulldogs’ 9.0 made threes are a weapon, but SMU’s offense is a multi-tool.

Final Score Prediction: SMU 78, Mississippi State 73.

Why? Because SMU’s road debut? More of a “let’s not embarrass ourselves” trip. Because Mississippi State’s defense? A three-point invitation. And because in basketball, as in life, the team that shoots better usually wins—unless they’re both as good as these odds suggest, in which case it’s a nail-biter.

Bet: SMU -1.5. If you’re feeling spicy, take the Under 164.5—defensive adjustments in a tight game could dry up the points.

In the end, it’s a game where SMU’s perfection meets Mississippi State’s potential. Let’s hope the Bulldogs don’t shoot themselves in the foot… or at least miss the net by less than 1.5 points.

Created: Nov. 28, 2025, 3:43 p.m. GMT

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