Prediction: South Alabama Jaguars VS UTSA Roadrunners 2025-11-30
South Alabama Jaguars vs. UTSA Roadrunners: A Basketball Showdown with Football Baggage
Let’s cut to the chase: South Alabama’s football team had a 2024 season so惨 that even the Gators would’ve felt bad for them. A 4-8 record, a lopsided loss to Texas State, and a coaching staff teetering on the brink of a personnel purge? It’s the sports equivalent of ordering a gourmet meal and getting a soggy pizza crust. But fear not, Jaguars fans—this isn’t football. This is basketball, where South Alabama enters as a 24.5-point favorite (per the latest odds) and a team that’s scoring like they’re playing in the NBA’s Three-Point Contest.
Parsing the Odds: A Statistical Jab at Reality
South Alabama’s basketball team is a statistical behemoth. They average 76 points per game (221st in scoring, because everyone’s good at scoring in the modern era) and allow a mere 66.4 PPG (58th in defense, because “mere” is relative). Their offense shoots 48.2% from the field—imagine if your dating profile was this efficient. Meanwhile, UTSA’s defense, while second in the AAC, allows 65.9 PPG (52nd nationally). That’s like inviting a vampire to a blood donation center: it’s okay, but not great.
The key stat? South Alabama’s offense shoots 11.2 percentage points better than UTSA’s defense allows. That’s the basketball equivalent of a 10-point spread. If the Jaguars keep hitting their threes (Adam Olsen is a 38.9% three-point shooter, which is “legit” in the Group of 5) and Chaze Harris dishing dimes (4.7 APG), they’ll turn UTSA’s “second in the AAC” defense into a leaky sieve.
UTSA’s saving grace? Their offense is decent, averaging 77.1 PPG, and Jamir Simpson is a scoring machine (18.9 PPG). But here’s the rub: South Alabama’s defense holds opponents to 37.0% shooting. Simpson’s team shoots 43.0%—so unless he’s planning to juggle basketballs and shoot free throws blindfolded, UTSA’s offense might struggle.
News Digest: Football’s Ghosts and Basketball’s Hope
Let’s not mince words: South Alabama’s football team is a cautionary tale. Injuries, coaching instability, and a transfer portal exodus that makes a Sudoku puzzle look organized. Cornerback Nehemiah Chandler didn’t even bother to stick around for the final game—he just left and posted about it on Instagram. But here’s the silver lining: their basketball team isn’t haunted by the same ghosts. This is a 6-1 squad with a +67 scoring differential, led by a coach (Major Applewhite) who’s apparently better at playcalling than managing a football program.
UTSA, meanwhile, is the underdog with heart. Their basketball team is 4-3 but boasts a +79 differential, which is like being the “David” in a David vs. Goliath story who still has a slingshot and a backup rock. Their home court is “friendly,” but South Alabama’s road success (+9.6 PPG differential) suggests they’re the kind of team that thrives in hostile environments—like a Netflix show that’s better than the trailer.
The Verdict: A Game of Three-Pointers and Hubris
The spread is South Alabama -24.5, and the over/under is 145.5. Given that these teams average a combined 153.1 PPG—enough to make a NBA game look like a pick-up match at the YMCA—the over is a no-brainer. But the real question is: can South Alabama cover that absurd spread?
Yes.
Their offense is a well-oiled machine, and UTSA’s defense is a sieve that’s been overhyped by the AAC’s “second-best” label. If Adam Olsen hits his threes and Chaze Harris keeps dishing, South Alabama will leave San Antonio with a win and a smirk.
Final Prediction: South Alabama Jaguars 82, UTSA Roadrunners 58. Cover the spread by 24 points, and make the bookmakers wish they’d never touched a calculator.
Bonus Pun: If UTSA pulls off the upset, it’ll be the sports equivalent of a snowball surviving a trip to the Sahara. But let’s be real—this is South Alabama’s game to lose. And they’re not losing it… unless they trip over their own shoelaces, like their football team did.
Created: Nov. 30, 2025, 8:39 p.m. GMT