Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals VS Arizona Diamondbacks 2025-07-20
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: A Tale of Two Pitchers and a Home-Run Happy Offense
The Arizona Diamondbacks (47-50) and St. Louis Cardinals (51-47) clash in the second game of their three-game series, with Ryne Nelson and Sonny Gray squaring off in a matchup that’s as much a chess match as it is a baseball game. Let’s break this down with the precision of a catcher framing a pitch and the humor of a closer trying to explain why they blew a save.
Parse the Odds: Numbers Don’t Lie (Mostly)
The Diamondbacks are listed as underdogs on the moneyline (-109), which is a bit of a head-scratcher given their 4th-ranked offense (5.1 runs/game) and the Cardinals’ 10th-ranked attack. But here’s the rub: Nelson, Arizona’s starter, is a rollercoaster. Over his last five starts, he’s been brilliant (1.53 ERA), but his most recent outing? A four-run, four-inning dud against the Angels. Meanwhile, Gray is a magician with his breaking balls, inducing whiffs at a 41.4% rate on his sweeper—good enough to make a snake charmer jealous.
The Cardinals’ pitching staff, though, is a sieve, sporting a 5.90 ERA over the past 10 games. For context, that’s worse than a colander left in a monsoon. Arizona’s pitchers, conversely, have a 3.45 ERA, which is about the difference between a leaky faucet and a fully functional sink.
Implied probabilities from the moneyline (Arizona at +1.74 decimal odds) suggest the underdog D-backs have a roughly 57% chance to win. But let’s not forget: Arizona’s win rate when favored is 50%, while St. Louis has a 50% win rate as underdogs. The Cardinals are favored by 1.5 runs on the spread, but with both teams averaging 8.5-9 total runs, this game could be a fireworks show.
Digest the News: Injuries, Schedules, and the Weight of Expectation
Arizona’s Nelson is coming off a brutal start, where he looked more like a pitcher who’d forgotten how to throw a strike than a man with a 1.53 ERA. His next start? Against the Astros’ Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen in the coming days. Let’s hope he treats this game like a dress rehearsal and not a final exam.
The Cardinals, meanwhile, are riding a hot bat. Brendan Donovan (.297 AVG) and Alec Burleson (.314 AVG) are hitting like they’ve been on a secret juice diet. But their pitching staff? Well, let’s just say Sonny Gray’s circus act in the rotation is the only thing keeping their ERA from resembling a horror movie.
Arizona’s Geraldo Perdomo leads the team with 10 home runs and 65 RBI, which is impressive until you realize he’s basically just a human wrecking ball in a baseball uniform. The Diamondbacks’ offense is so potent, they could score runs with a starting lineup of dummies and a batboy.
Humorous Spin: Because Baseball Needs More Laughs
Ryne Nelson’s last start was so bad, the Angels probably considered giving their bats a standing ovation. But hey, even the best pitchers have off days—like when your coffee runs out, or you realize you’ve been wearing socks inside-out since 2020.
Sonny Gray’s breaking balls are so good, they’d make a ballerina weep… with envy. The man’s sweeper is a punchline to hitters, a 41.4% whiff rate that’s basically a math problem asking, “How do you miss that?”
As for the Cardinals’ pitching staff? A 5.90 ERA is about the same as my ability to parallel park. It’s not pretty, but at least it’s honest.
Prediction: Who’s Cooking Dinner?
This game hinges on Nelson bouncing back and Gray keeping his act together. Arizona’s offense is a nuclear reactor, and the Cardinals’ pitching is a paper towel. Even if Nelson struggles, the D-backs’ bats could outgun St. Louis’ porous defense.
But here’s the kicker: The Cardinals’ hitters are hot, and Arizona’s pitching is better. In the end, Nelson’s bounce-back performance and Arizona’s run-producing machine should prevail.
Final Verdict: Bet on the Arizona Diamondbacks. They’re the underdog with the sharper teeth and the Cardinals’ pitching staff? Well, they’re the reason we have the term “soft underbelly.” Unless Sonny Gray turns into a one-man wrecking crew, Arizona’s fourth-ranked offense will feast.
“The Diamondbacks win 6-4, because nothing says ‘confidence’ like a team that’s underdogs but smells victory like a bloodhound at a butcher shop.”
Created: July 19, 2025, 9 p.m. GMT