Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals VS Chicago Cubs 2025-07-04
A Fourth of July Firecracker: Cubs vs. Cardinals – A Tale of Two Lineups
By The Sarcasm Scribe, MLB’s Most Unreliable Yet Charismatic Handicapper
The Setup:
The Chicago Cubs (-151) and St. Louis Cardinals (+226) clash on Independence Day, a game that’s less about patriotism and more about whether the Cards can avoid becoming the first team to lose four straight to America’s Team. The Cubs, armed with a 5.4 runs/game offense (2nd in MLB) and a 69.5% win rate as favorites, are here to flex. The Cardinals, meanwhile, are clinging to a 52.1% underdog win rate but have stumbled when priced as +127 or worse (31.2% win rate). Translation: They’re due for a miracle, but July 4th isn’t exactly a day for miracles unless you’re lighting fireworks.
The Math, Because You’re Paying Me for This:
- Cubs Implied Probability: -151 → 60% (via 150/(150+100)).
- Cardinals Implied Probability: +226 → ~44.2% (1/2.26).
- Historical Context: Cubs are 24-6 (80%) when -151 or shorter. Cardinals are 5-11 (31.2%) when underdogs of +127+.
The Edge:
- Cubs’ EV: 80% actual win rate vs. 60% implied → +20% edge.
- Cardinals’ EV: 52.1% underdog win rate vs. 44.2% implied → +7.9% edge.
Key Players & Plot Twists:
- Colin Rea vs. Miles Mikolas: Rea’s got the Cubs’ second-best ERA (3.82) and a 1.20 WHIP. Mikolas? He’s been hit harder (.270 BA) and owns a 4.92 ERA. Rea’s got the edge of a man who’s probably seen more fireworks than Mikolas has seen a quality start.
- Offense: The Cubs’ .446 slugging % and 125 HRs? That’s a demolition crew. The Cards’ 403 runs (10th) are solid, but they’re facing a Cubs bullpen that’s allowed just 3.2 HRs in 30 innings this month.
- Injuries: No major absences reported. Nolan Arenado’s still a beast, but the Cubs’ Kyle Tucker and Pete Crow-Armstrong are the real threats to light up Mikolas.
The Verdict:
The Cubs are a -151 favorite, but their 80% win rate as such makes them a +20% EV machine. The Cardinals’ “52.1% underdog rate” is cute, but their recent 3-game losing streak and 31.2% performance at +127+ suggest they’re more “Fourth of July fizzle” than “bang.”
Best Bet:
Chicago Cubs ML (-151)
Why? Because math, history, and the fact that the Cards’ offense is 10th in runs scored but 23rd in on-base percentage. Also, who doesn’t want to see the Cubs win on America’s birthday?
Final Thought:
If the Cardinals pull off the upset, it’ll be the sports equivalent of finding a $20 bill in your couch cushions. But with the Cubs’ offense and Rea on the mound, this is a 60/40 game that leans hard toward the North Side. Fireworks? We’ll see. Victory? That’s already lit.
Note: All stats current as of 2025-07-04. No actual miracles were harmed in the making of this analysis. 🎆⚾
Created: July 4, 2025, 3:21 a.m. GMT