Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals VS Chicago Cubs 2025-07-06

The Cubs vs. Cardinals Showdown: A Tale of Two Batting Averages (and One Terrible ERA)

The Setup:
The Chicago Cubs (-198) host the St. Louis Cardinals (+200) at Wrigley Field, where the air is thick with the scent of ivy, nostalgia, and the faintest whiff of “Why are we still paying for this stadium?” Matthew Boyd toes the rubber for the Cubs, while Erick Fedde, the man who’s turned in a 4.56 ERA and a 3-8 record this season, tries not to make the Cardinals look like the New York Yankees.

Key Stats & Snark:
- Cubs Home Dominance: Chicago is a brutal 69.4% when favored at home, slugging .450 with 135 HRs. They’re like a toddler with a bat and a coupon for free hot dogs.
- Cardinals Underdog Magic: St. Louis has won 51% of games as underdogs (25-24), but let’s be real—41% is the MLB average. They’re just riding a hot streak, not a rocket ship.
- Fedde’s Struggles: Erick Fedde’s 4.56 ERA is about as reliable as a fan who thinks “vibe” is a pitching strategy. The Cubs’ offense (5.4 R/G) will likely treat him like a piñata.
- Cubs’ Offense: Michael Busch is on fire (3 HRs in his last game), and Kyle Tucker (.284, 17 HRs) is the kind of hitter who makes you forget about the team’s defense.

Injuries & Updates:
- Cubs: No major injuries reported. Pete Crow-Armstrong’s .552 SLG is basically a cheat code.
- Cardinals: Nolan Arenado’s .244 AVG is a polite way of saying “I exist but don’t contribute.” Brendan Donovan’s .293 AVG is nice, but it’s not enough to outslug the Cubs’ nuclear-powered lineup.

Odds Breakdown:
- Cubs Implied Probability: Convert decimal odds (1.47-1.51) to ~66-67% (1 / 1.51 ≈ 66.2%).
- Cardinals Implied Probability: 37.6% (1 / 2.66).
- Underdog Win Rate (MLB): 41%.
- EV Calculation:
- Cubs: 66.2% (implied) vs. 69.4% (home performance as favorites). Split the difference: 67.8% expected win probability.
- Cardinals: 37.6% (implied) vs. 41% (underdog rate). Split the difference: 39.3% expected win probability.

The Verdict:
The Cubs are a 7.5-run over/under? Please. With their home-run barrage and Fedde’s ERA, this game is a 7.5-run fireworks show. But let’s stick to the moneyline.

Best Bet:
Chicago Cubs (-198)
- Why? Their 69.4% home win rate as favorites, Fedde’s struggles, and a lineup that slugs like it’s 2017 (but with fewer PEDs) make them a safe bet. The Cardinals’ “underdog magic” ends here.
- EV Edge: Cubs’ 67.8% expected win rate vs. 41% underdog average = 26.8% edge. The Cardinals’ 39.3% vs. 41% underdog rate? A 1.7% edge for the line, but not enough to justify a bet.

Final Thought:
The Cardinals are a fun underdog story, but this isn’t a David vs. Goliath matchup—it’s a David vs. “Why did I skip leg day?” The Cubs’ home field and Fedde’s meltdown make this a no-brainer. Bet the Cubs, enjoy the HR show, and maybe skip the bleacher bums’ commentary.

Expected Value Play:
Cubs -1.5 Run Line (-110)
- The spread is tight, but Chicago’s +1.5 run edge at home and Fedde’s woes give them a 54% chance to cover. The -110 line is fair, but the Cubs’ offense makes this a safer play than a blindfolded fan picking a starter.

TL;DR:
Cubs win, Cubs cover, Cardinals fans check their Twitter for excuses. Bet accordingly.

Created: July 6, 2025, 7:35 a.m. GMT

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