Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals VS Milwaukee Brewers 2025-06-15
Folks, we've got a real barnburner of a matchup for you today as the St. Louis Cardinals look to salvage a game against the Milwaukee Brewers, who are riding a three-game winning streak and have been nearly unbeatable at home.
The Cardinals have struggled on the road this season, going 14-20, while the Brewers have been kings of American Family Field with a 22-14 record. The trend continues to favor Milwaukee, with SportsLine's model giving the Brewers a 60% chance of winning and predicting an average score of 4.1-3.7.
The starting pitchers, Jose Quintana and Andre Pallante, have some question marks surrounding them. Quintana has a 3.86 expected ERA, while Pallante has a 4.75 ERA. Both lineups have shown they can put up runs, ranking in the Top 11 in runs scored per game, and they've both had success against the opposing pitchers.
The real story here, though, is the recent form of some key players. Contreras has been on fire with six hits in his last seven games, while Rhys Hoskins has been crushing it with a recent homer and a history of success against Pallante.
Now, let's talk odds. The Brewers are favored at around -180 (implied probability of 64.7%), while the Cardinals are sitting at +160 (implied probability of 38.5%). The Over/Under has been set at 8.5 across most books, with the Over favored at around -115 and the Under at -105.
To calculate the expected value of each bet, we'll use the average odds across multiple bookmakers.
For the moneyline:
- Milwaukee Brewers: -179 (implied probability of 64.2%)
- St. Louis Cardinals: +162 (implied probability of 38.1%)
For the spreads:
- Milwaukee Brewers -1.5: +240 (implied probability of 29.4%)
- St. Louis Cardinals +1.5: -210 (implied probability of 67.7%)
For the totals:
- Over 8.5: -108 (implied probability of 52%)
- Under 8.5: -104 (implied probability of 51%)
The best bet here, based on expected value, would be taking the Milwaukee Brewers on the moneyline at around -179. This bet has an expected value of $100 * (1 - 0.638) = $36.2 for every $100 bet.
Alternatively, if you want to play it safe, taking the Over 8.5 at -108 has an expected value of $100 * (1 - 0.52) = $48 for every $100 bet, given that the actual probability of going over seems higher than the implied probability.
However, my top pick would be Rhys Hoskins to go over 1.3 total bases, which SportsLine's model gives a five-star rating. Given Hoskins' recent form and history against Pallante, this seems like a very solid prop bet.
In conclusion, Milwaukee Brewers to win seems like the smart play here, but if you're looking for some extra excitement, taking the Over 8.5 could be a fun way to enjoy the game. And don't forget to keep an eye on Rhys Hoskins - he's due for a big game.
Best bet: Milwaukee Brewers on the moneyline.
Created: June 15, 2025, 12:28 p.m. GMT