Prediction: Stefanos Tsitsipas VS Valentin Royer 2025-06-30

Wimbledon 2025: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Valentin Royer – A Tale of Two Gamblers
By The ATP’s Most Likely To Lose a Bet to a Frenchman Named Valentin

The Setup
Stefanos Tsitsipas, the Greek maestro with a new coach (Goran Ivanisevic, former Wimbledon champ and "basics enthusiast"), faces Valentin Royer, a 28-year-old Frenchman who’s probably never had a coach as famous as his opponent’s ex-coach. Tsitsipas is the 1.24 favorite, while Royer is the 4.0 underdog. The odds scream, “Bet on the Greek god,” but let’s not let our hearts (or our wallets) get too excited.

The Math: Because Even Gods Need Calculators
- Tsitsipas’ Implied Probability: 1/1.24 ≈ 80.6%
- Royer’s Implied Probability: 1/4.0 ≈ 25%
- Tennis Underdog Win Rate: 30%

Now, let’s split the difference between the bookies’ cold, unfeeling math and the historical underdog rate. For Royer:
- Adjusted Probability: 25% (bookies) + (30% - 25%) = 30%
- Tsitsipas’ Adjusted Probability: 100% - 30% = 70%

Expected Value (EV) Calculations:
- Tsitsipas: (70% chance to win * 24% profit) - (30% chance to lose * 100% stake) = -10.1%
- Royer: (30% chance to win * 300% profit) - (70% chance to lose * 100% stake) = +10%

The Verdict: Royer has a positive EV (+10%), while Tsitsipas has a negative EV (-10.1%). The math says bet on the underdog.

The Sarcasm:
Tsitsipas is playing with a new coach who treats him like a beginner. Ivanisevic’s approach is so basic, it’s like telling Roger Federer to “just hit the ball over the net.” Meanwhile, Royer is the guy who’s probably never heard of Wimbledon until he got a wild card. But hey, 30% chance to win a match against a top-10 player isn’t nothing. It’s just… very little.

Key Factors:
- Tsitsipas’ New Coach: Ivanisevic’s “back to basics” strategy might be frustrating for Tsitsipas, but it’s probably not making him lose.
- Royer’s Motivation: If you’re Valentin Royer, you’re either here to make a statement or to finally prove that your name isn’t a typo for “Valentino Rossi.”
- Injuries/Updates: No major injuries reported, but Tsitsipas’ mental game might be a work in progress under Ivanisevic.

The Play:
Bet on Valentin Royer at +400 (4.0 odds). Yes, it’s a shocker. Yes, it’s a long shot. But the EV says it’s the smartest bet. If Tsitsipas wins, you’ll lose money, but if Royer pulls off the upset? You’ll feel like you’ve discovered the next big thing in tennis… and maybe get a free drink at the pub.

Final Thought:
Wimbledon is full of surprises. Bet on the underdog, but only after you’ve laughed at the absurdity of it all. After all, as Goran Ivanisevic once said, “Champions are made when no one is watching.” But also, sometimes they’re just made by the bookies’ math.

Best Bet: Valentin Royer (+400) – Because 30% is better than 25%, and sarcasm is always in style.

Created: June 30, 2025, 3:08 a.m. GMT

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