Prediction: Stony Brook Seawolves VS San Diego State Aztecs 2025-08-28

San Diego State Aztecs vs. Stony Brook Seawolves: A Tale of Two Turnarounds (With a Side of Sacks)

Ladies and gentlemen, prepare for a collision of contrasting narratives: San Diego State, the overachieving underdog trying to forget a 3-9 nightmare, and Stony Brook, the FCS Cinderella story riding a magical 8-4 redemption arc. Let’s break this down with the precision of a QB’s spiral and the humor of a punter’s shanked kick.

Odds: Why the Bookmakers Think This Is a Foregone Conclusion
San Diego State is the NFL’s Tom Brady at a college football combine—unstoppable, yet oddly overpriced at a sportsbook. The Aztecs are favored at -1000+ odds (yes, you read that right; FanDuel lists them at 1.07 decimal, implying a 93% chance to win). Meanwhile, Stony Brook, the scrappy FCS underdog, is a +700 underdog (12% implied probability). The spread? A brutal -19.5 to -20.5 points, meaning Vegas thinks SDSU will win by the same margin as a Netflix password reset code expires.

The total is 54 points, suggesting this won’t be a “gritty defensive battle” (unless you count the Seawolves’ defense watching the clock melt). For context, Stony Brook averaged 31.8 PPG last season; SDSU, under Lewis, averaged 23.2 PPG. So, expect a fireworks show… for one team.

Team News: Injuries, Turnarounds, and a QB Named “Jayden”
San Diego State: Sean Lewis, the man who turned a 3-9 trainwreck into a “tremendous team” (per his own presser), has a QB battle won by Jayden Denegal, a true freshman who outdueled Bert Emanuel Jr. (yes, that Emanuel’s son). On defense, Trey White (12.5 sacks last year) is the human equivalent of a spam filter—blocking signals and sacking hopes. But let’s not forget: SDSU ended 2024 on a six-game losing streak, which is longer than most college relationships.

Stony Brook: Roland “The Human Lawnmower” Dempster is the real deal. The graduate student from Staten Island rushed for 1,332 yards and 18 TDs in 2024—stats so absurd, they make a Marvel villain look mundane. Coach Billy Cosh, FCS’s version of a reality TV coach, turned a 0-10 team into a playoff contender, earning Coach of the Year honors like a college football Elon Musk. But here’s the rub: Stony Brook’s offense relies on Dempster like a toddler relies on a pacifier. If he’s stuffed, the Seawolves might as well bring a white flag.

The Humor: Because Football Needs More Laughter
San Diego State’s defense is so dominant, they once sacked the concept of hope. Trey White? He’s the reason why “sack” is singular in the dictionary. Meanwhile, Stony Brook’s offense is like a reality TV show—Dancing with the Stars one week, Survivor the next. Dempster’s 2024 stats? If he were a toaster, he’d be the one that also naps.

And let’s not forget SDSU’s new head coach, Sean Lewis, who’s under pressure to prove that “tremendous team” isn’t just a motivational poster. His first season was like a group project—full of promise, but ended in a 3-9 freefall. Now he’s betting on Jayden Denegal, a QB whose name sounds like a TikTok trend.

Prediction: Will San Diego State Win by 20? Let’s Do the Math
San Diego State’s implied probability of winning is 93%, per the odds. That’s the same chance of surviving a Netflix movie without cringing. Stony Brook’s 12% chance is about as likely as a snowstorm in August.

But here’s the twist: Dempster’s legs are literally built for miracles. If he goes off for 200+ yards and 3 TDs, Stony Brook could pull a 20-point rally… in a video game. Reality? SDSU’s defense will treat Dempster like a VIP at a bouncer’s party—no passes, no exceptions.

Final Verdict: San Diego State wins 35-17, covering the spread by a hair (28-20). The Aztecs’ QB, Jayden Denegal, will throw for 250 yards and 2 TDs, while Trey White adds 3 sacks to make Lewis forget about that 3-9 streak. Stony Brook’s Dempster will rush for 120 yards, but it’ll be like watching a sloth win a marathon—respectable effort, but not the result.

Bet: SDSU -19.5 (-110). Because if you’re going to lose by 20, at least you get a free hat from the bookie.

And remember, folks: Football is 90% preparation, 10% luck, and 50% pretending you knew this all along. 🏈

Created: Aug. 29, 2025, 1:45 a.m. GMT

Pikkit - Sports Betting Tracker, Odds, Insights & Analysis.

Prediction: Stony Brook Seawolves VS San Diego State Aztecs 2025-08-28

Prediction: Will San Diego State Win by 20? Let’s Do the Math San Diego State’s implied probability of winning is 93%, per the odds. That’s the same chance of surviving a Netflix movie without cringing. Stony Brook’s 12% chance is about as likely as a snowstorm in August.

Prediction: Will San Diego State Win by 20? Let’s Do the Math
San Diego State’s implied probability of winning is 93%, per the odds. That’s the same chance of surviving a Netflix movie without cringing. Stony Brook’s 12% chance is about as likely as a snowstorm in August.