Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays VS Detroit Tigers 2025-07-09

Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: A Tale of Two Pitchers and a Spreadsheet’s Sigh
July 9, 2025 | Comerica Park | First Pitch: 1:10 PM ET

The Setup:
The Detroit Tigers (58-34) are riding a four-game winning streak, led by their league-leading 119 home runs and a 3.44 team ERA. The Tampa Bay Rays (49-42), meanwhile, have lost three of their last four games and are relying on a .409 slugging percentage to keep up. The starters? Jack Flaherty for Detroit (assuming the typo in the original data is corrected) and Ryan Pepiot for Tampa Bay. Flaherty’s 2.89 ERA and 54 strikeouts in 53 2/3 innings this season? A masterclass in not being Ryan Pepiot, who’s been a bit of a rollercoaster with a 3.50 ERA and a 5.07 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

The Odds Breakdown:
- Moneyline: Tigers at -150 (60% implied probability), Rays at +225 (30.77% implied).
- Spread: Tigers -1.5 (-150), Rays +1.5 (+125).
- Total: Over/Under 8.0 runs (-110/-110).

The Math, Because We’re Not All Here for the Poetry:
- Tigers as Favorites: Their 70.5% win rate as favorites outpaces the 60% implied by the odds. That’s a 10.5% edge.
- Rays as Underdogs: Their 48.8% win rate as underdogs (41% is the MLB average) vs. 30.77% implied gives them a 18.03% edge.
- Spread: Tigers -1.5 at -150 (60% implied) vs. Rays +1.5 at +125 (44.4% implied). The Tigers’ 70.5% as favorites vs. the spread’s 60% is a 10.5% edge, while the Rays’ 48.8% vs. 44.4% is a 4.4% edge.

The Verdict:
While the Tigers are the more likely winner (70.5% vs. 60% implied), the Tampa Bay Rays at +225 offer the best expected value (18.03% edge). Why? Because the market is undervaluing their ability to win as underdogs (48.8% actual vs. 30.77% implied). Plus, Flaherty vs. Pepiot? The Rays’ offense has the tools to exploit a shaky starter.

The Spread and Total?
- Rays +1.5: A 4.4% edge is decent, but not as juicy as the moneyline.
- Over 8.0 Runs: The Tigers lead the league in HRs, and the Rays slug .409. The model projects exactly 8 runs, so the Over at -110 is a coin flip, but not a bad one.

Final Call:
Bet the Rays (+225 ML) — Because math, and because the Tigers’ “winning streak” is just a four-game fluke waiting to be broken by a team that knows how to play spoiler.

Bonus Sarcasm:
If the Tigers win, chalk it up to Flaherty being the real MVP (he’s not). If the Rays pull off the upset, tell Pepiot he’s now the star of a Netflix documentary titled “Ryan Pepiot: How to Lose a Game in 9 Innings.”

Expected Value Summary:
- Rays ML: 18.03% edge.
- Tigers ML: 10.5% edge.
- Over 8.0: 0% edge (50/50).

Stick with the Rays. They’re the underdog with the upside. And really, who doesn’t love an underdog who’s also a 48.8% money machine?

Created: July 9, 2025, 11:37 a.m. GMT

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