Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays VS Kansas City Royals 2025-06-25
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals: A Tale of Two Slugging Percentages
June 25, 2025 | Kauffman Stadium | 7:40 PM ET
The Setup:
The Rays (43-35) and Royals (38-40) clash in a rematch of a recent Kansas City sweep. Tampa’s offense is a sledgehammer (.404 SLG, 11th in MLB), while KC’s is a dampened spark (26th in SLG, 29th in HRs). The Rays’ Drew Rasmussen faces Michael Wacha, who’s sporting a 2.12 ERA—the fifth-lowest in baseball. But let’s not forget: the Royals just swept the Rays earlier this season. Twice? No, once. But once is enough to leave a bruise.
Key Stats & Context:
- Rays as Favorites: 60.5% win rate when favored—13.7% higher than their implied odds (-200 = 66.7% → actual 60.5%).
- Royals Offense: 56 HRs (29th), 56 HRs vs. Rays’ 84 HRs (14th).
- Wacha’s Magic: 2.12 ERA, but can he survive Tampa’s Yandy Diaz (.331 OBP) and Randy Arozarena (16 HRs)?
- Rasmussen’s Revenge: The Rays’ starter held KC to 2 ER in April but lost 3-1. “I’ll take the loss, but I’ll take the money too,” he said.
Injuries & Notes:
- Rays: Full health. Caminero (19 HRs) and Arozarena are the thunder.
- Royals: Full health. Vinnie Pasquantino (11 HRs) is the lone bright spot in a lineup that’s hit fewer HRs than the Rays’ Caminero alone.
Odds Breakdown:
- Moneyline:
- Rays: -200 (56.8% implied)
- Royals: +160 (38.5% implied)
- Spread:
- Rays -1.5 (-110)
- Royals +1.5 (-110)
- Total:
- Over 9 (-105)
- Under 9 (-105)
Calculating Expected Value (EV):
1. Rays Moneyline:
- Implied: 56.8%
- Historical: 60.5% as favorites
- EV = (60.5% - 56.8%) = +3.7%
- Split the difference between implied and underdog rate (41%): 56.8% vs. 41% → Rays are undervalued.
2. Royals Moneyline:
- Implied: 38.5%
- Historical: 41% (underdog win rate)
- EV = (41% - 38.5%) = +2.5%
- But the Rays are 60.5% as favorites. The Royals’ implied is too high.
3. Over/Under:
- Rays’ offense (84 HRs) vs. KC’s pitching (Wacha, 2.12 ERA).
- Expected Runs: Rays ≈ 5.5, KC ≈ 3.5 → Total ≈ 9.0.
- EV = Neutral (Over/Under priced at -105/-105).
The Verdict:
The Rays are a +3.7% EV play on the moneyline. Their 60.5% win rate as favorites crushes the implied 56.8%. The Royals’ offense is a sieve, and Wacha’s ERA is a mirage against a Rays lineup that slugs .404.
Best Bet: Tampa Bay Rays -200
“The Rays don’t need a comeback—they just need to show up. And they’ve been doing that for 60.5% of their games as favorites.”
Spread & Total:
- Rays -1.5 (-110): A tight call, but their offense (+1.5 runs) should cover.
- Over 9 (-105): The Rays’ bats and KC’s weak defense could push this over.
Final Thought:
The Royals’ pitching is elite, but their hitting is not. The Rays’ offense is a wrecking crew, and their 60.5% win rate as favorites isn’t just luck—it’s math. Go Rays.
Created: June 25, 2025, 6:33 p.m. GMT