Prediction: Tarleton State Texans VS Cincinnati Bearcats 2025-12-01

Tarleton State Texans vs. Cincinnati Bearcats: A Statistical Slapdown with a Side of Sarcasm

Ladies and gentlemen, prepare for a basketball bout that’s as lopsided as a pancake on a rollercoaster. The Tarleton State Texans (3-4), riding a three-game winning streak like it’s their last chance to prove they’re not a Division I also-ran, are about to crash into the Cincinnati Bearcats (5-1 at home) like a Prius into a Brinks truck. Let’s break this down with the precision of a spreadsheet and the humor of a Twitter thread after a bad sports bet.

Parsing the Odds: Why Cincinnati’s Bookmakers Are Smiling Like They Stole the Lottery
The numbers scream “Cincinnati’s taking this!” louder than a toddler in a candy store. The Bearcats are installed as 1.04 decimal favorites (implied probability: ~96%) across most books, while Tarleton State sits at +12.6 (implied probability: ~7.5%). That’s the basketball equivalent of betting on gravity—sure, it’s technically possible for the moon to crash into Earth, but don’t bet your rent on it.

The spread? A -17-point屠城 (-16.5 to -17.5, depending on the bookie) for Cincinnati. For context, Tarleton State averages 63 points per game, while Cincinnati allows just 64.1. The Bearcats are so dominant defensively that they could probably hold a statue to 36% shooting. And Tarleton’s offense? It’s like a Wi-Fi signal in a concrete bunker—fragile, inconsistent, and mostly just frustrating.

Statistical Shenanigans: Why Tarleton’s Playbook Reads Like a Haiku
Let’s start with the obvious: Cincinnati’s defense is a locked door with a bouncer named “No.” They rank third in the Big 12, allowing 64.1 PPG while holding opponents to 36.7% shooting. Tarleton, meanwhile, lets teams shoot 45.7%, which is like leaving your front door open and yelling, “Free snacks inside!”

Three-pointers? Cincinnati allows 7.7 made threes per game, while Tarleton makes a paltry 4.4. Dior Johnson, Tarleton’s leading scorer (23.6 PPG), will need to channel his inner Steph Curry in a hail mary—except even Steph would struggle against Cincinnati’s perimeter defense. And let’s not forget the Bearcats’ Baba, who drops 14.4 points and 10 rebounds per game. She’s the human equivalent of a Swiss Army knife: versatile, reliable, and not something you’d want pointed at you.

Tarleton’s lone bright spot? Their 11.6 assists per game, led by Freddy Hicks’ 2.6 dimes. But Cincinnati’s defense is so tight, even Hicks’ passing looks like a game of Operation—nervous, awkward, and likely to end in a short circuit.

News Flash: Injuries, Home Court, and Why Tarleton’s Streak is a Mirage
The Texans’ three-game winning streak? It’s about as sustainable as a diet consisting solely of pizza. They’ve yet to face a team with Cincinnati’s defensive grit, and their 1-3 road record suggests they’ll wilt under the Bearcats’ home-court pressure. Cincinnati’s 5-1 at home this season, and their fans are so loud, they’ve been known to give opposing teams migraines.

As for injuries? No major ones listed, but let’s imagine a fun scenario: What if Dior Johnson suddenly developed “stage fright” under Cincinnati’s bright lights? Or maybe Baba decided to take up stand-up comedy mid-game? Unlikely, but hey, Tarleton’s odds are so low, they’re basically selling hope in a vending machine.

The Verdict: Why You’re Betting on Cincinnati Unless You’re a Glutton for Punishment
Cincinnati’s defense, home-court advantage, and superior shooting efficiency make them the clear choice. The Bearcats’ 42.7% field goal percentage may not sound flashy, but it’s 3% better than what Tarleton’s defense allows—meaning Cincinnati’s offense is basically a well-timed sneeze: unstoppable and inevitable.

Prediction: Cincinnati wins by 18-22 points, because Tarleton’s offense is about as effective as a screen door on a submarine. Take the Bearcats at -17, and if you’re feeling spicy, throw in an Over on the total (146.5). But whatever you do, don’t bet on Tarleton unless you’re planning to write a sympathy letter to the universe.

Final Jeer: If this game were a movie, it’d be titled The Bearcats: How to Lose a Three-Point Shot in 40 Minutes. Tarleton’s only hope? Praying Cincinnati’s starters take a 10-minute timeout to eat nachos. Even then, the backups are probably better than their offense.

Place your bets, folks. The only thing more certain than this outcome is taxes and the fact that Tarleton’s three-point shot will miss the rim. 🏀🔥

Created: Dec. 1, 2025, 12:44 p.m. GMT

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