Prediction: Texas State Bobcats VS Arizona State Sun Devils 2025-09-13

Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Texas State Bobcats: A Clash of Contrasts (and a Few Jokes About Passing Yards)

Parse the Odds: The Numbers Don’t Lie (Mostly)
Arizona State (-17.5) is a near-90% favorite on the moneyline (decimal odds ~1.11), while Texas State (+17.5) sits at roughly 14% implied probability (decimal odds ~7.0). That’s the kind of gap you see when one team is “bringing the juice” and the other is just bringing juice (the kind you squeeze, not the kind you bet on). The total is set between 60.5 and 61.5 points, suggesting a high-scoring shootout—though ASU’s anemic passing attack (105th in FBS at 169.5 yards per game) might beg to differ.

Digest the News: Injuries, History, and Why Last Year’s Near-Upset Matters
Arizona State’s offense relies on brute force: their rushing attack (28th in FBS at 226 yards per game) is a freight train, but their passing game is a bicycle with training wheels (and a flat tire). QB Sam Leavitt has thrown 3 TDs and 3 INTs—exactly the kind of performance that makes fans reach for their second cup of coffee. Meanwhile, Texas State’s Brad Jackson is a dual-threat wizard, averaging 250 passing and 41 rushing yards per game. Their offense is 16th-best in FBS (530 total yards per game), while their defense? Well, it’s like a sieve that’s been challenged by a sieve convention.

Last year’s 31-28 near-upset still stings for ASU fans, but this year’s Bobcats are 2-0 after a 43-36 pasting of UTSA. The Sun Devils, meanwhile, stumbled to a 24-20 loss against Mississippi State—proof that even a decent defense (21st-best against the run) can’t save a team with a passing game that’d make a lawn chair blush.

Humorous Spin: Puns, Analogies, and Why This Game Feels Like a Bad Date
Arizona State’s passing offense is so lackluster, it makes a “no frills” motel look like a five-star restaurant. Imagine telling your dating app profile you’re “adventurous,” then showing up to a dinner date wearing a “I Heart Big 12” t-shirt and ordering a salad… with no dressing. That’s ASU’s QB in a nutshell.

Texas State’s rushing attack, on the other hand, is a well-oiled combine harvester—crushing foes with 280 yards per game. If their offense were a movie, it’d be Mad Max: Fury Road… if Max drove a food truck and the antagonists were Arizona’s porous pass defense.

And let’s not forget the spread: -17.5 for ASU is like betting your friend can eat a whole pizza in one sitting. Sure, they could do it, but is it wise? Is it healthy? Probably not. Yet here we are.

Prediction: The Verdict (and Why You Should Bet on Sun Devils, Unless You Enjoy Heartburn)
Arizona State’s defense—particularly their run-stuffing unit—should suffocate Texas State’s rushing attack, limiting them to closer to 200 yards instead of their 280 average. Meanwhile, ASU’s ground game (226 YPG) and Texas State’s leaky pass defense (233.5 YPG allowed) mean the Sun Devils can milk clock and score enough to cover the spread.

But here’s the kicker: ASU’s passing game is so unreliable, they’ll likely gift the Bobcats a few big plays. Expect a final score like 31-24—if ASU’s offense doesn’t spend the fourth quarter trying to explain why they “forgot how to pass.”

Final Call:
Pick: Arizona State Sun Devils (-17.5)
Why? Because even a broken clock is right twice a day… and ASU’s defense is right more than that. Plus, at these odds, betting on Texas State is like betting your goldfish will win a triathlon. Stick with the Sun Devils—unless you’re into chaos, in which case, good luck, and may your bets be as erratic as ASU’s passing game.

Created: Sept. 13, 2025, 9:16 p.m. GMT

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